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THE YEAR OF THE UNLIKELY: HOW IS THE BEST PICTURE RACE SHAPING UP?

The classy and "very Brit" Atonement is one of the safest bets in the Best Picture race

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By Robert Cameron

Life as a blogger seemed to be so much simpler. There once was a time when things always seemed inevitable, the true contenders for nominations fairly obvious. Those times have vanished in the wake of Brokeback Mountain's infamous loss to Crash in '05, and more importantly Dreamgirls' failure to garner a nomination for Best Picture last year. Studios, as it has been keenly pointed out, are now wary to tout their films as frontrunners, a position that is now viewed as awards-poison (just look at Charlie Wilson's War, which, despite very pleasant early word is already branded as an underwhelming contender). And just observe this year, where there is no juggernaut to be seen. All of the great movies have their detractors, and quite ironically the "important" films have all failed to impress critics (the exception being In the Valley of Elah). So this may be the first time in years that the hardest category to predict will be, oddly enough, Best Picture. I don't expect my proposed nominees to be spot-on, for in a year where everything fails to add up to a pattern, where nothing seems to make sense, data means nothing and there will always be room for a surprise. So I will attempt to second-guess the unpredictability, and recognize the potential in those movies that never seemed to have a chance until now. But I will warn you that I won't be covering any new ground here, since there are bloggers much wiser than I who cover this material at a constant pace. I'll try my best though to make my argument and defense for gangsters, amusingly pregnant teenagers, an unstoppable psychopath, a miraculous eyelid, and some truly miserable Brits...

American Gangster (Universal Pictures)

Once the most anticipated movie of the year for many (including myself), American Gangster has the reviews, the hype, and the box-office. The only thing stopping it from a nomination? The film itself. While admirably executed, authentically gritty and blisteringly well-acted, American Gangster is curiously detached and passionless. And what's worse, there's that stale reaction of it feeling too familiar, covering no new ground in the gangster genre. It's legitimately a good movie, but it failed to live up to the expectations, which is just as deadly to a film's chances. So this is a bit of a toss-up: a very successful and popular movie that will draw audiences to tune in to watch the show (an incredibly important quality in a year when all of the critical smashes have generally underwhelmed at the box office) that most people like but very few actually love. It's that prestige film that's perfectly good but still can be easily snubbed. However, I'm predicting that it won't and that's because the still has the popularity and box-office gross to prevail. Besides, what's a year at the Oscars without a couple of cops and robbers?

Predicted Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director- Ridley Scott
Best Actor- Denzel Washington
Best Original Screenplay- Steven Zaillian
Best Film Editing- Pietro Scalia

Atonement (Focus Features)

It's been a long time since we've seen a sweeping, grand romance, hasn't it? Of course, some people will argue that Brokeback Mountain was the last great romance but allow me to risk sounding prejudice when I say that Ang Lee's film strikes me more as riveting melodrama than something that stirs passion in me. No, it's been quite a while since we've been treated to something with spark. The last movie to attempt it (and fail, in my opinion) was Cold Mountain, whereas the last two movies to reach it on a more humble scale were Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Joe Wright's Pride and Prejudice. So consider it a grand opportunity when an epic spanning decades with a raw heart actually succeeds its ambition of being great. Which is why Atonement is likely to be the film that squares off with No Country for Old Men for winning the Best Picture trophy. Reviews have been almost universally positive and it will have the prestigious appeal to Academy members. And the buzz is resurging as it draws closer to opening in American theaters. The only worry should be how the film (a very British venture, apparently) is received by us Yanks. Entertainment Weekly scribe Lisa Schwarzbaum's "lovely but lacking" review already signals that American critics may not be as fond of the film as the British have been. And this is by no means a conventional love story, the story being more a vehicle for wistful sadness than uplifting love. However, despite those worries this film is a very safe bet.

Predicted Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director- Joe Wright
Best Actor- James McAvoy
Best Supporting Actress- Saoirse Ronan
Best Adapted Screenplay- Christopher Hampton
Best Film Editing- Paul Tothill
Best Cinematography- Seamus McGarvey
Best Art Direction- Sarah Greenhill
Best Costume Design- Jacqueline Durran
Best Original Score- Dario Marianelli

Juno (Fox Searchlight)

The heartwarming-little-indie-that-could has become a mandatory slot over the last couple of years. Lost in Translation, Sideways, and Little Miss Sunshine were all movies that dabbled in very mature (sometimes very dark) themes while retaining an emotionally warm center and a hilarious sense of wit. And if any film fulfills those requirements this year, it's Juno. Word on the streets being that Diablo Cody's screenplay is both fresh and sensationally amusing, it's that came-out-of-nowhere critical smash that will undoubtedly draw in many fans and will bring a smile to just about everyone. Hell, it supposedly leaves audiences even more chipper than last year's Little Miss Sunshine (which, we forget sometimes, wasn't that happy of a movie). With the combination of being both crowd-pleasing and a critical darling, Juno really ought to be fast-tracked as a very likely nominee. The only frustrating detail is how maddeningly narrow the film's possible nominations are. Jason Reitman, who helmed last year's sardonically funny Thank You For Smoking, is too small a name to compete with the likes of Ridley Scott, Joel and Ethan Coen, Sidney Lumet, or just about all of those in contention. And the film is a comedy after all, a genre that is almost never recognized in the Director category. While the film has a great ensemble, all of the acting buzz is being concentrated on star Ellen Page. And, let's face it, the flick doesn't have a shot in hell at garnering technical nods. But perhaps that's how it'll be, and the movie will be recognized regardless. Sometimes quality of the categories nodded will outshine the quantity.

Predicted Nominations

Best Picture
Best Actress- Ellen Page
Best Original Screenplay- Diablo Cody

Le Scaphandre et le Papillon (Miramax Films)

Excuse me for being so obnoxious that I feel it necessary to write a film's title in a foreign language but I do prefer to refer to a film by its original name. Translated into The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Julian Schnabel's film was, at the beginning of the year, was just known as a film that Johnny Depp dropped out of to star in. It made some noise at Cannes, but not the sort that would seriously suggest that it could become a Best Picture nominee. However, in light of the remarkable success it has had with critics, I just wanted to declare that it's very possible. When examining the potential of Le Scaphandre et le Papillon's awards success, it's important to note not just how much people admire it but also how much they love it. Just reading the compilation of reviews will show an abundance of that. This film has moved people, and apparently the Academy screenings were very positive. In a year of political and social depression, Academy members will be more drawn to uplifting and spirited movies. And which one do you think will win out: the moving but critically mixed The Kite Runner or this life-affirming and visually innovative gem? Just take a moment and recognize that this movie has visibly moved people and that that goes a long way in a year where the films are more intellectually stirring than emotionally satisfying. It will have to overcome the language barrier (the film is, after all, in French), but that never stopped films such as Z, Viskningar och Rop (Cries and Whispers), or Wo Hu Cang Long (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon). Consider this to soon emerge as a very likely contender.

Predicted Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director- Julian Schnabel
Best Adapted Screenplay- Ronald Harwood
Best Cinematography- Janusz Kaminski

No Country for Old Men (Miramax Films and Paramount Vantage)

A critical smash (and may I the Coen Brothers' finest film, if I say so myself), No Country for Old Men is perhaps 2007's masterpiece. Stunningly crafted, bleakly haunting, and resembling The Departed in that watching both feels like having a syringe filled with cinematic euphoria plunged into your brain, it's my predicted film-to-beat. Pulling in impressive numbers per theater and boasting staggeringly positive reviews, its status as a lock really ought to be all sewn up. And yet it's not. There are folks out there who still say nay to its chances of even garnering a nomination. And that's largely due to the fact that the movie is, to put it plainly, as dark as fuck. Brimming with grisly violence, one deeply unsettling killer, and an ending that leaves audiences wondering what the hell happened, No Country for Old Men ain't an easy pitch to audiences or the Academy. However, couldn't the same be said for last year's winner, The Departed? I have already alluded to Scorsese's film in describing No Country for Old Men, and may I say again the two are similar: a genre (the thriller) movie helmed by a long overdue director(s) that wows critics. It's hardcore, the violence unflinching and characters ruthlessly killed off, and unconventional awards fare. And yet, it walks away with the top prize. If it worked for Marty, whose luck at the Oscars seemed forever cursed, then perhaps our favorite duo can finally be honored this year. And No Country for Old Men has very epic and American themes under its surface; America's obsession with money, our society succumbing to fear and violence, and the argument between fate and human choice. You can't stop what's coming, and you can't stop this film.

Predicted Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director- Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Supporting Actor- Javier Bardem
Best Adapted Screenplay- Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Film Editing- Roderick Jaynes (aka Joel and Ethan Coen)
Best Sound Mixing- Craig Berkey

So there you have it. I won't go into the other films; you know what they are and I'm not going to waste all of our time discussing whether or not orgasmic eruptions of blood will affect Sweeney Todd's chances, or whether The Kite Runner will turn out to be good or not. What will be will be, I suppose.

What are your current Best Picture predictions?

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