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ANALYSIS: WHY IS BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS SO WEAK?

Cate Blanchett continues as the frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar

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By Lee Hernandez

The year that Rachel Weisz won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for The Constant Gardener, a whopping 15 other actresses delivered strong supporting performances that merited Oscar attention. Among those 15 were the snubees: Maria Bello (A History of Violence), Thandie Newton & Sandra Bullock (Crash), Scarlett Johansson (Match Point), Sharon Stone (Broken Flowers), Anne Hathaway (Brokeback Mountain), Toni Collette (In Her Shoes) and Weisz's fellow nominees: Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain), Catherine Keener (Capote), Francis McDormand ( North Country) & Amy Adams (Junebug).

But last year's weak race, which arguably had 6 or 7 legitimate contenders including the five nominees + "snubees" Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada) & Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration), bored us all. This year, it's even worse. At the end of October, only one actress, Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) is a solid contender for a Best Supporting Actress nomination. And everyone else, even those getting major buzz, are far from a sure thing.

Industry Veteran Jennifer Jason Leigh was the frontrunner in this category for several months but recently, she seems like she's not even a lock for a nomination. Her film, Margot at the Wedding, co-starring Nicole Kidman, is probably the most divisive film of 2007. Noah Baumbach, who penned the script for the Oscar nominated The Squid and the Whale, seems to have written characters that really get on people's nerves and under their skin. Unless the studio rallies behind JJL, the likelihood she will be nominated for a supporting actress Oscar is highly unlikely right now. Chances are also slim for Romola Garai, the only actress in Atonement who did not receive good marks for her portrayal of the young adult Briony, portrayed by 2 other actresses in the same film. Unless a miracle, called PR, happens, I don't expect Garai to earn a nomination this year.

Amy Ryan, an actress of the stage who has several major Hollywood movies coming out this year is also not on my top 5 for a nomination. Yes, hers is a distressed mother role and yes, Oscar does love these kinds of deglam parts. However, she is not a major Hollywood star and since she's basically unrecognizable to the masses and public, she will have to campaign really hard (like Amy Adams did prior to her nomination for Junebug) to prove that her transformation, was in fact, a transformation from glamour to deglam. Also, while Ryan has received nothing but favorable marks from the critics, Gone Baby Gone seems to be all about the Affleck's, the story there being that Ben is now a director, and a good one at that, and Casey is a terrific actor with now a second solid film out this year.

What about Tilda Swinton? George Clooney's co-star has recently received excellent marks for her work in Michael Clayton and she is a respected actress, could she be the actress to earn a spot in the top 5? While reviews and box office are good, and Swinton could ride the Clooney wave, I am going to go out on a limb and say she doesn't get a nomination either. The buzz about Clayton is set to fall on Clooney's star status and I don't think her performance was great, I think it was just good. Still, she and Ryan are major contenders in this weak race.

So, if not Leigh, Garai, Ryan and Swinton, then who? I am putting my money on Saoirse Ronan, whose continued buzz for Atonement as the young Briony cannot be silenced. I am also jumping on the Vanessa Redgrave bandwagon. Although she failed to impress with Evening, out earlier this year, Redgrave's cameo in Atonement, won her raves from critics and her legendary actress status should be able to earn her a nomination in a very weak year.

I'm also seeing the possibility of two former winners entering this race in a strong way. Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows Your Dead) and Julia Roberts (now heavily campaigning for Charlie Wilson's War) are previous Oscar winners who the Academy would likely love to welcome back. The former, Tomei, is in a Lumet picture that has received some great reviews, many of which mention her terrific and sexy performance as a woman in a love affair with two brothers. Meanwhile, Roberts' unusual role in Charlie Wilson's War, and the fact that she's featured on the movie's poster opposite Tom Hanks could mean she's a bigger and better part in the film that we thought. Remember, this is three times nominee Julia Roberts and more importantly, Hollywood's former It Girl in a comeback of her own.

And what about the surprise contenders? Could Ruby Dee's scene-stealing turn in American Gangster marvel AMPAS?  Or is there someone out there we are not even considering yet? However, for me, I think Cate Blanchett has a big lead, Saoirse Ronan is trailing Blanchett, Vanessa Redgrave is in third and Julia Roberts & Marisa Tomei crack into the top five. I also think if Warner Brothers is smart, they'll campaign Charlize Theron here, instead of lead, considering that she's earned favorable remarks for In the Valley of Elah.

Here are my current predictions:

1. Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
3. Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)
4. Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War)
5. Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

6. Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
7. Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
8. Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
9. Charlize Theron (In the Valley of Elah)
10. Romola Garai (Atonement)

What are your Best Supporting Actress Predictions?

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