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VENICE WRAP UP: THE POST-FESTIVAL BUZZ!

Volpi Cup winner Cate Blanchett is favored by odds on the race for the Oscar

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By Johnny Alba

The Golden Lion has undoubtedly become one of the most competitive festival awards in the world and one of the most important Oscar precursors out there. I personally consider it a great predictor for the Best Actress category: Julianne Moore, Imelda Staunton and most recently Helen Mirren have gone successfully from Volpi Cup recipients to Oscar nominees (and winners in the case of The Queen’s star). Does this mean Cate Blanchett is a lock for an Oscar nomination for her acclaimed and versatile turn in Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There? Well, it’s a very favorable omen that she won Best Actress for a very likely supporting role (Blanchett splits screen time with other Hollywood thespians playing Bob Dylan, all men).

While this achievement bodes well for Blanchett (who is also a strong contender for the Best Actress Oscar in The Golden Age), I fear it is not as favorable for Keira Knightley, star of rival drama Atonement (which left the festival empty-handed despite extremely positive buzz and reviews). Although the lack of support doesn’t necessarily means Knightley or Atonement are out of the race, it establishes them as solid yet vulnerable contenders (the vast praise for the cast of Atonement should have at least translated into an acting or director win).

While Atonement got nothing, the grimly reviewed The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford benefited from the Hollywoodland effect and collected the Volpi Cup for its leading man, Brad Pitt. Unfortunately, this hardly means Pitt is a sure thing at the Oscars. Last year, Ben Affleck’s star power earned him the same award for his dramatic portrayal of George Reeves in the Allen Coulter fiasco. Past Venice Best Actor winners, with the exception of David Strathairn and Sean Penn (who won the Volpi Cup for 21 Grams and not for Mystic River), haven’t been so lucky at the american awards lately and I really don’t see Pitt succeeding either (since his film’s overall reception has been mediocre).

The Silver Lion for Best Director is not a great Oscar prognosticator either so don’t count in Brian De Palma (recipient of the honor this year for Redacted, over Ang Lee) until he stars getting precursor nominations in America (unlikely as usual). Likewise, don’t expect much from Ken Loach’s It’s a Free World until writer Paul Laverty receives any nomination for his Osella winning work from a local critics’ association.

The big surprise at the festival (after mostly disappointing reviews) and biggest buzz gainer was indeed Ang Lee’s Lust, Caution. Besides taking home The Golden Lion (which Lee also took home a couple of years ago for Brokeback Mountain), the foreign language thriller also received the Osella for Best Cinematography (making due artist Rodrigo Prieto an Oscar contender one more time). Despite this boost, I can’t really affirm Lust, Caution is poised for Oscar attention. It really got mixed reviews (enough to keep it out of the main race) but probably not harsh enough to avoid possible recognition on the acting and technical categories. Expect the post-Venice results to reflect in our upcoming updates.

Meanwhile, here’s a quick recap of how Venice affected this year’s biggest Oscar contenders:

Greatest Buzz Gainers (Films in competition)

1. Lust, Caution: Brokeback Mountain losing to Crash is considered one of the biggest snubs of all time; will AMPAS redeem its mistake? A hint: Peter O’Toole.

2. Michael Clayton: solid but not glowing reviews give the film a much needed push but it will need to collect some precursors love to become a serious contender.

3. I’m Not There: Cate Blanchett heads a heavyweight cast playing different aspects of Bob Dylan’s enigmatic persona. Will Blanchett become a double nominee or will AMPAS honor her with only one nomination but a secured victory?

4. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford: The Jolie-Pitt duo should probably start saving the date because between both of them; they have a fair shot at an Oscar nom (but tons of public image problems to overcome before that).

5. Atonement: No Knightley and no Wright on the official awards is a potent step back for the well-liked project but there are lots of precursors ahead.

What do you think? Is Lust, Caution translating its European success to America? And is Atonement much ado about nothing? Talk it in our forums!

Full list of the 64th Venice Film Festival Winners!

Next stop: Toronto (stay tuned)
 

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