Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

THE TOP 10 OPINIONS: PERFORMANCES THAT WON'T WIN OSCARS...

A Writer's Point of View

For his impressive work as Nikolai in Eastern Promises, Viggo Mortensen has earned his first Academy Award nod.

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By Johnny Alba

Note: The opinions expressed on this article are responsibility of the author

While No Country for Old Men continues to mass murder across Hollywood, there seems to be very few things to talk about at this point of the Oscar race. Is this the calm before the storm? Are we waiting for something really surprising to happen on Oscar night? History and statistics tell us not to expect any wonderful to take place on February 24 because honestly, there is nothing denying second Academy Awards to Julie Christie and Daniel Day-Lewis at this point (except maybe the fact they already won Oscars).

But what about those actors that, year after year, get to go the ceremony as nominees and leave as losers (I hate that word but it's true). The world isn’t perfect and everything about perfection is also subjective which makes very hard to separate who we want to win from who will undoubtedly win (and who deserves it).

In years to come, most of this year's Oscar-nominated performances will still be celebrated and remembered by film lovers all over the globe and while the next actors are statistically set to walk out of the Kodak Theater (fingers crossed) emptyhanded, we should always keep in mind that for every Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote, there is also a Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain.

Here is my personal take on the Oscar-nominated performances I believe will survive the “test” of time:

10. Viggo Mortensen as Nikolai Luzhin in Eastern Promises
“I’m just a driver”

As driver/hitman Nikolai Luzhin, Viggo Mortensen not only mastered the Russian accent and dare to bare much more than his soul. He immersed himself into the mind of this man born and raised in the former Soviet Union, a dark figure with more good to him than anyone around him can even imagine. Mortensen played Nikolai as a real person (living in a very raw London, thanks to David Cronenberg’s direction) and his idealization of this character other actors have similarly played to over-the-top results in many crime stories is among the best in the genre, ever.

09. Casey Affleck as Robert Ford in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
“He’s just a human being”

Brad Pitt is probably one of the most popular actors in the world but when Casey Affleck is on screen as the deceiving Robert Ford; all eyes are on Ben’s brother. Affleck portrays Ford as a troubled man trapped within his own idolization for the notorious Jesse James and the cruel reality that reveals the outlaw as nothing more than a very flawed mortal. There’s plenty of depth in Affleck’s natural performance as his character’s admiration for Jesse James slowly dissolves and all that is left is death and of course, the birth of a myth.

08. Amy Ryan as Helene McCready in Gone Baby Gone
“I feel like 9/11 now”

If there was a breakthrough in 2007, it really wasn’t Ellen Page. Her rock-solid performance as the worst mother you can possibly imagine in Gone Baby Gone earns Broadway actress Amy Ryan this special mention. There’s a sense of familiarity in Ryan’s explosive portrayal of a drug-addict (also dealing with her daughter’s abduction) that truly made her a standout this year and one of the few performances that, without showing much of a softer side, was still able to earn the audience’s sympathy and respect. Expect Ryan to do very well in Hollywood from now on with upcoming roles for directors Clint Eastwood and Paul Greengrass.

07. Cate Blanchett as Queen Elizabeth I in Elizabeth: The Golden Age
“I, too, can command the wind, sir!”

You have to be a terrific actor to get away with dialogue as cheesy and trivial as the one in Elizabeth: The Golden Age or you just have to be Cate Blanchett. When she wasn’t playing Bob Dylan to critical acclaimed results in I’m Not There, Blanchett had the chance to show the real power of her acting chops as the multilayered Queen Elizabeth I (who has been played by pretty much all the great actresses out there by now, including herself in the film that launched her career back in 1998). In The Golden Age, Blanchett majestically commands the screen as her queen commands the wind and in the end; her hurricane was able to strip AMPAS bare one more time…

06. George Clooney as Michael Clayton in Michael Clayton
“I’m not the guy you kill. I’m the guy you buy!”

Is George Clooney more a Hollywood icon than actor? In Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton, Clooney plays the title character as elegantly and convincingly as movie stars are supposed to do it. His passionate performance is both showy and subtle (and many will probably agree that it is the best of his career yet). If Clooney had not won so soon, he probably would be giving Daniel Day-Lewis a good run for his money right now.

Saoirse Ronan shows depth beyond her age as Briony Tallis in Atonement

05. Saoirse Ronan as Briony Tallis in Atonement
“What's the worse word you can possibly imagine?”

Is it lying? Is it penance? Briony Tallis, at age 13, has no idea of the consequences her actions will have on everyone around her (including blooming lovers Robbie Turner and her sister Cecilia) but in the hypnotic, blue eyes of Irish rising talent Saoirse Ronan, we can see the truth. Ronan delivers a haunting performance way ahead of her years and one that audiences will continue to celebrate as this promising talent reaches maturity.

04. Ellen Page as Juno MacGuff in Juno
“If you are still in, I’m still in”

At the beginning, Juno MacGuff is nothing more than a 00’s live-action reinvention of MTV’s Daria but as the film progresses; Ellen Page’s bittersweet performance makes us fall deeply for this unique personality. Not only is Page’s excellent comedic timing the essence behind the film’s growing success, it is also the best defense mechanism for a girl like Juno. Page understands her character and she adds much-needed substance and sorrow to the quirky dialogue by Diablo Cody. In the end, when it’s time for decision-making; Page’s Juno isn’t the same she was nine months ago and now she is not afraid to show it.

03. Hal Holbrook as Ron Franz in Into the Wild
“When you forgive, you love…”

This is one of the most honest and touching performances of the year and it will undoubtedly continue to earn supporters as soon as more and more people watch Sean Penn’s film. Among a solid ensemble, veteran Hal Holbrook stood out with his brief but heartbreaking turn as the last stranger crossing paths with Emile Hirsch’s adventurous character. His final scene in particular has to be the most affecting scene of 2007’s cinema.

02. Johnny Depp as Sweeney Todd in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
“How about a shave?”

Sweeney Todd, the Demon Barber of Fleet Street, is not an easy character to play or to like. A murderous, dark-humored personality that can only fit someone as charming and versatile as Johnny Depp is played with great understanding of the cause-effect principle by the now three-time nominated actor. Depp’s Sweeney Todd seeks revenge but against who? His character shows no mercy to guilty or innocent men and we are still able to accept him for who he is and to understand his motives. Eventually, the barber becomes both demon and men but thanks to Depp’s emotional singing and acting; we don’t have to choose one from the other because we can keep both...

01. Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose
"No regrets"

If Holbrook moved us to tears, Page made us smile and Depp simply blew us away; there was one performance in 2007 that was able to do all that but sadly; Oscar-wise, it was done in a foreign language. Marion Cotillard gave the best performance of the year as the tragic French chanteuse Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose. Cotillard convincingly plays Piaf from diamond in the rough to frenetic diva, and then; to fallen idol. Cotillard disappears completely into her iconic character, there is no mimicry here. She becomes Piaf and never lets her go...

Even if Cotillard doesn’t win the Oscar, her mesmerizing portrayal will live longer than any other work by an actor in 2007 and some times, that’s the biggest award of all.

Of course, I’m not calling these actors losers in advance ( If you are a fan of one of the actors mentioned above, do not feel discouraged or offended. After all, we are yet to hear the names called after the phrase And the Oscar goes to…) As clichéd as it sounds, being an Oscar nominee is a big honor itself and all of them would be worthy recipients of an Academy Award.

Sad thing is, the Oscar can only go to one person…

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