Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OUR LOOK AT THE FALL CONTENDERS

At age 14, Saoirse Ronan is close to becoming a first time Oscar nominee

FEATURES

By Lee Hernandez

Bid farewell to the supporting actresses in "Evening," "The TV Set," "A Mighty Heart, & "Hairspray." Now say hello to the supporting actresses in "The Golden Age," "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "Margot at the Wedding," "Sweeny Todd," "Charlie Wilson's War," "Reservation Road," "In the Valley of Elah," "The Savages," and "I'm Not There."

Yes, ladies and gentleman, while this summer failed to produce any real contender for the Supporting Actress award, it also helped to shorten the list of this year's hopefuls. Jillian Armeante and Lisa Carnahan failed to impress in "A Mighty Heart," and Michelle Pfeiffer and Queen Latifah likewise left no lasting impression in "Hairspray." Sigourney Weaver's "The TV Set," is among the year's most forgotten films, and the cast of "Evening," so plagued by bad reviews and poor box office, cannot possibly rebound from such a critical and economic beating. The only one standing from these four films is Nikki Blonsky, who could favor from a supporting actress campaign later in the year for her role as Tracy Turnblad in the well-liked "Hairspray," (but she's really a lead actress).

With these films out of the way, it's really a matter of ten films with all of the contenders. Romola Garai had all of the buzz for "Atonement," but her three part role is now earning buzz for costar, Saoirse Ronan. Due to "Atonement's" continued growth of buzz, both remain legitimate and serious contenders for the big prize. Also serving double duty are the women from "The Golden Age," Samantha Morton & Abbie Cornish. The latter, due to a larger role and the "pretty young thing" factor seems like the more likely choice.

The festivals have been kind thus far to "Michael Clayton," and Tilda Swinton, who is a very respected character actress is rumored to "steal the show." Likewise, "I'm Not There," the risky, avant-garde Bob Dylan biopic in which six actors portray the legend, will be playing at festivals very soon, and continues to gain buzz for Cate Blanchett. Helena Bonham Carter benefits from the fact that "Sweeny Todd," which could go either way, has not been completely bashed by anyone yet, which could mean it's actually good, or even better, great.

"Charlie Wilson's War," and "Reservation Road," both seem to be heading to the Best Picture category which could mean serious awards recognition for Julia Roberts in the former and Jennifer Connelly or Mira Sorvino in the latter. Susan Sarandon continues to gain momentum for her role in "The Valley of Elah," and Oscar loves a comeback (but will her screen time be significant enough?). "The Savages," whose released date was mysteriously moved to December from September, has received excellent reviews for its star, Laura Linney, who many believe could finally win an Oscar this year with nominations number 3. Finally, "Margot at the Wedding," Noah Baumbach's follow-up to "The Squid and the Whale," features a performance by Jennifer Jason Leigh which many are predicting will win the Oscar. She is, unquestionably, the category's frontrunner this year.

Ranked below, from 1 to 10 (1 being the frontrunner and 14 being the least likely to get nominated), are this year's contenders:

1. Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
2. Laura Linney (The Savages)
3. Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
4. Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
5. Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War)

6. Abbie Cornish (The Golden Age)
7. Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeny Todd)
8. Jennifer Connelly (Reservation Road)
9. Mira Sirvino (Reservation Road)
10. Romola Garai (Atonement)

11. Susan Sarandon (In the Valley of Elah)
12. Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
13. Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)
14. Samantha Morton (The Golden Age)

Is one of these ladies poised for Oscar glory? Share your own predictions in our forum!
 

Comments?
 

COMMUNITY

REVIEWS