Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS RACE: WHO HAS THE BUZZ RIGHT NOW?

The estrogenized cast of "Evening" is favored by early awards buzz

FEATURES

By Lee Hernandez

Arguably, there are two reasons to buy an admission ticket to this summer’s musical, “Hairspray” on the big screen. The first and more obvious reason is to see male heartthrob John Travolta make a fool of himself attired in women's clothing sporting, fake breasts and a wig. But the second reason (which is much less frightening and much more rewarding), is to witness 3-time Oscar nominated actress Michelle Pfeiffer's return to celluloid. In "Hairspray" Pfeiffer plays Velma Von Tussle, a gorgeous, sophisticated villain whose narcissism is sure to produce chuckles and laughs from audiences. Also, if her past work in the musical "Grease" is any indication of what she will be bringing to this role, then we're staring at a major player in a very heated contest.

Pfeiffer hasn't appeared on the big screen since "White Oleander" (2002). But this year, she's got 3 films coming out including, "Stardust," and "I Could Never Be Your Woman," and she is in talks to do a film in 2008, entitled, "Chasing Montana." Could quantity lead Pfeiffer to an Oscar nomination or win? Or are these merely cameo in films that will be largely ignored? It still remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen if AMPAS is willing to honor the beautiful actress, since it's been over 15 years in 1992 for "Love Field," since they showed her some love. Prior to that, she had earned nominations for “The Fabulous Baker Boys,” (1989) and Dangerous Liaisons (1988). She has never won a competitive Oscar. In addition, it remains to be seen if "Hairspray" will be a total failure like "The Phantom of the Opera" or a critical and financial success like "Chicago," or "Moulin Rouge." Finally, Pfeiffer has a lot of internal competition to think about. From Nicole Blonsky, who plays the loveable Tracy Turnblad, to Queen Latifah, who earned a nomination in the musical "Chicago," in the same category, and even newcomers Amanda Bynes and Brittany Snow, Pfeiffer will have to prove she is the standout in this all so diverse monstrous cast.

Like Pfeiffer, Sigourney Weaver was last nominated for an Oscar more than fifteen years ago for 1992's “Gorillas in the Mist: The Story of Dian Fossey.” Prior to that, Weaver had earned two nominations, one supporting nomination for "Working Girl” (1988), and another for a lead role in “Aliens,” (1986). Like Pfeiffer, Weaver is winless at the big dance. But she could change that this year with her role in Think Film’s, The TV Set, which is already getting excellent marks from critics, as well as early Oscar buzz. In The TV Set, Weaver plays Lenny (No last name), a terrible Executive Producer who makes shows even worse than they were before she and her team get involved with them. It’s the kind of role that could get Weaver a nomination because she is fantastic in these kinds of mocking comedies. If her performance makes us laugh in an intelligent way (Ala Helen Hunt in "As Good As It Gets)," and if she manages to deliver a believable and unique character, Hollywood will embrace her with open arms.

But earning a nomination for parodies and spoofs is easier said than done, and Hollywood has to be in the mood to accept others making fun of them and their industry. They clearly weren't in the mood last year, snubbing the very funny "For Your Consideration," including the very deserving Catherine O'Hara, and the script. But they were in the mood the year "In and Out" came out, as they honored the talented Joan Cusack with a supporting actress nomination for a wonderfully nuanced and funny performance. So who the heck knows?

In addition, Weaver, like Pfeiffer, is one member of a large supporting cast of actors including one in particular, who could take her spot. Judy Greer, who has appeared in dozens of films as a supporting actress to major stars like Jennifer Lopez in “Maid in Manhattan,” and Jennifer Garner in “Thirteen Going on 30,” as well as “What Women Want,” may finally get the industry respect she deserves for her comedic timing and excellent supporting work. While it will be hard for her to upstage an actress of Weaver’s talents, it’s not impossible and if the trailer is any indication, Greer has a lot of room to flex her comedic muscles in this role.

Finally Weaver could be hindered from the fact that the film's director has never had one of his actor’s nominated for a competitive Oscar. Jake Kasdan, best known for the films "Orange County," and "The School of Rock," is great at making crowd pleasers, but not so great at getting his actors prestigious prizes.

The late June release “Evening,” on there hand, certainly looks like the type of film that earns prestigious prizes. It features performances from a who's who of talented Hollywood stars including, Patrick Wilson, Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Vanessa Redgrave, Claire Danes, Toni Collette, and Natasha Richardson. Still, its best chance for a nomination lies in the performance of screen legend Vanessa Redgrave. In a role similar to Gloria Stuart's in "Titanic" Redgrave plays Ann Grant, a dying woman who is reminiscing on the past love of her life while on her deathbed in her suburban home, accompanied by her two daughters, played by Toni Collette and Natasha Richardson. Needless to say, the role is a sympathetic one, and it is being played by a screen legend that is now in her elderly years. Furthermore, AMPAS voters will probably remember that the last time Redgrave won an Oscar was as far back as 1977 for “Julia.” They will also remember that she has not been nominated in fifteen years, not since her supporting role in “Howard’s End,” in 1992. The might also remember that Redgrave has earned additional nominations for: “The Bostonians” (1984), “Mary, Queen of Scots” (1971), “Isadora,” (1968), and “Morgan: A Suitable Case for Treatment,” (1967). To date, she has 6 career nominations, and 1 win. Could “Evening,” lead to her 7th nomination. One big reason to suspect it could happen is the name Michael Cunningham, who penned the film's source material, and had previously written "The Hours.” The film "The Hours" (2002) earned 3 of its actor’s nominations including two women, Julianne Moore and Nicole Kidman. Kidman went on to win the Oscar for her role as Virgina Woolf.

Therefore, Redgrave is currently my frontrunner on account of she is a legend, she has critical support, she is starring in a sympathetic role and she hasn't been nominated in years. Still, her performance has its downsides; in particular, the film itself could draw too many comparisons to Tim Burton's "Big Fish," (a film that was ill-received by AMPAS). Redgrave could also have her thunder stolen by the abundant number of talented performers standing around her, including, Meryl Streep, Toni Collette, Natasha Richardson, or she could be outshined by her younger self in the film, the reliable Claire Danes. I see big things happening in the acting categories for “Evening.”

Actress Laura Linney hasn’t had the lengthy, legendary career that Redgrave has enjoyed for decades, but her undeniably heartbreaking, powerful work in the brother-sister drama "You Can Count on Me" (2001), opened people’s eyes to the previously underrated and undervalued actress, and earned her an Academy Award nomination for Best Actress in a Leading Role. It did something else too. It got her noticed with casting directors who had original, fresh and exceptional material to offer an actress of her newly discovered caliber. Since filming “You Can Count on Me,” Linney has consistently chosen the right role, and she has delivered exceptional, memorable performances in the films “Mystic River,” “Kinsey,” (for which she received a supporting actress nomination), and “The Squid and the Whale". This year, she’s back in another brother-sister drama, starring opposite Oscar winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman in the critically praised dark comedy, “The Savages,” a film about siblings who must cope with the impending Death of their elderly father.

Several critics have pointed out that “The Savages” has an excellent script, but they have also unanimously praised Hoffman and Linney for finding every nuance in this hilarious and mortifying tale. Once again, it seems Linney has found the right role to complement her truly unique and wonderful talents. Portraying Wendy Savage, a pill popping playwriting living in the East Village, Linney looks right at a home in a role that requires her to look at the men in their life with stares of inferiority and disappointment. Her brother’s apartment, a clutter of papers and ill-used desks (all of the papers and objects are on the floor), is something she perceives as quite pathetic, while her father’s senile habits in old age seem to annoy her. Linney is excellent at playing a woman who is easily annoyed. She is also great at finding humor in disappointment and tragedy and she is an expert at delivering lines filled with a dichotomy of blended humor and grief. AMPAS has noticed her twice, could “The Savages,” lead to a third career nomination. She certainly has a lot going for her including, critical praise, former AMPAS love, an award-winning talented co-star and character actor, and a great script, but, as always, there is a downside. Can Tamra Jenkins, the director of “The Slums of Beverly Hills,” really help Linney earn a nomination when none of her actors have ever earned nominations? It remains to be seen.

Like Linney, Samantha Morton has two career Oscar nominations under her belt for her work in “Sweet and Lowdown,” and “In America.” The first was one she deserved; the second was a gift during a year with little to no competition. Still, Morton is a talented actress very well liked by AMPAS. Her deliciously villainous role as Mary, Queen of Scots in “The Golden Age,” the sequel to the very successful film “Elizabeth,” which garnered several Oscar nominations, could give them a reason to love her once again. In the film, Morton is suspected of betraying Queen Elizabeth in spite of the fact that the two are cousins. She has several scenes with the very talented Cate Blanchett, and Clive Owen, and the role seems to fit like a glove. Still, Abbie Cornish, her younger, less famous co-star seems to be getting a lot of buzz. Could Abbie she, playing Bess, Queen Elizabeth’s favorite lady in waiting, steal the show and earn a spot instead?

And what of the young actresses secretly getting themselves in this year's race. Sure, names like Abbie Cornish (The Golden Age) and Claire Danes (Evening) are likely choices, but there are a number of other young beauties vying for a ticket to the Kodak. Romola Garai (Vanity Fair), for instance, has received favorable buzz for her work opposite Kiera Knightley and James McAvoy in "Atonement." Alison Lohman (White Oleander) could earn a nomination working alongside Oscar winner Halle Berry in "Things We Lost in the Fire." The twice snubbed star of "Lost in Translation" and "Match Point," Scarlet Johansen, could finally receive recognition for her work opposite Natalie Portman in "The Other Boleyn Girl." Will they ever honor her with a nomination? Meanwhile, Portman is hoping to earn a nomination for "My Blueberry Nights," as is her co-star, Oscar winner Rachel Weisz. The stars of "Charlie Wilson's War," Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada), and Amy Adams (Junebug) are likewise hoping to gain recognition as well.

Finally, as Oscar buzzers, we know we don't and can't know it all. And not only do we not know it all, we don't even know who all of the possible candidates for Oscar are. We didn't know Amy Adams before Junebug, and we didn't know Rinko Kikuchi before "Babel." Therefore, look out for performers whose stars have not yet risen, including actresses Jillian Armeante and Lisa Carnahan for supporting work in the Angelina Jolie star vehicle "A Mighty Heart," and Mary Page Keller, appearing in "Charlie Wilson's War," as the title character's wife. Also look out for my dark horse this year, an actress who could come out of nowhere and win it: Tilda Swinton for "Michael Clayton." And remember, whatever the outcome, the guessing game is always fun, and the show is always enjoyable.

What are your Best Supporting Actress predictions? Share them here!

Comments?
 

COMMUNITY

REVIEWS