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SEPTEMBER STATUS: THE BEST ACTOR RACE

British sensation James McAvoy is poised to breakthrough in Hollywood with "Atonement"

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By Myles Hughes

With three months to go before the race is run and the tallies start to come in, you would think we’d have more early contenders for some top prizes at this year’s Academy Awards. But after several disappointments at the Toronto and Venice, and the fact that most of the major prestige projects are as usual tucked into the late fall/winter months, we can only guess at this point.

Having said that, one of the more active categories for speculation throughout the year has undoubtedly been Best Actor. With many early heralds from the year’s first half, and fewer casualties than the other categories (with the notable exception of Joaquin Phoenix for the apparently lackluster “Reservation Road”), it will be very interesting to see how this particular race plays out. Until then, here is a comprehensive list of the Top 15 performers (ranked in no particular order) who have been successfully buzzed for a nomination, and my own predictions for where they’ll wind up:

CHRISTIAN BALE for “RESCUE DAWN”

At the time of the film’s release, Mr. Bale had some significant critical praise on his plate, which in any other situation might have translated into a solid nomination prospect. However, the film went largely unnoticed outside of the regular indie crowd and the actor’s fan base, and it was released at an awkward time for Oscar voters to look back on (you usually have to work doubly hard to get noticed in a summer film). Although he has many supporters who would love to see him get it, I have a strong suspicion that if he gets any notice this year, it will be for “3:10 to Yuma” in the supporting category, if only because there’s more room there than here.

Verdict: The film will need a strategically timed DVD release to catch anyone’s attention, but more than likely you can count Mr. Bale out this year.

DON CHEADLE for “TALK TO ME”

I remember a time when this guy had all of the buzz. The film’s release inspired a surge of critics jumping on his bandwagon, hailing him as a surefire contender. The performance is certainly worthy, and it could potentially find a comfortable nomination spot, if it weren’t for (again) the movie’s unhelpful release. Had the film seen a fall release, Mr. Cheadle’s work would have remained at the forefront of voter’s attention. As it is, he’s only slightly ahead of Mr. Bale (see above) and Mr. Gere (see below

Verdict: Probably the best bet for a nomination out of the year’s first half, but is there room in the Top 5 for even that much?

GEORGE CLOONEY for “MICHAEL CLAYTON”

I’m still not entirely sure what this movie is doing with Oscar buzz in the first place, but here it is. I suppose after his win two years ago for “Syriana”, everyone has been eagerly anticipating what this huge star will come up with next (not including “Ocean’s Thirteen” of course). Early word from Venice is that the film is very good, but there’s little to no chance of any real Oscar attention. More than likely, a nod will go to Mr. Clooney’s co-star, Tom Wilkinson, but that appears to be the movie’s only strong contender anymore.

Verdict: Count this one out of the running, unless at least half of the unseen contenders bomb.

JOHN CUSACK for “GRACE IS GONE”

Having won the Best Actor prize at Sundance can only be beneficial, and many could see him as being overdue for a nomination. The movie also has a well-timed release and a timely subject that could certainly cater to the Academy’s tastes. It will need strong reviews to keep it afloat, but if it gets them, then he could have a very strong shot.

Verdict: A more than solid chance for a nomination, although he may still slip through the cracks in this crowded category.

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS for “THERE WILL BE BLOOD”

Goodness knows this thespian needs a comeback project and this looks to be a more than serviceable vehicle for him to return to the public’s attention. After a very promising trailer and with the film itself garnering relatively consistent buzz thanks to its pedigree, I believe that Mr. Day-Lewis is due to return to the awards ceremony in full glory. So long as the film itself isn’t a disaster, I can’t imagine he won’t.

Verdict: He is perhaps the strongest unseen contender, though of course reviews will determine everything.

JOHNNY DEPP for “SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET”

Now that the “Pirates of the Caribbean” saga is over (or is it? *shudders*), we can now get back in the habit of Mr. Depp starring in films with a quality that doesn’t rely on his performance. This hotly anticipated musical adaptation from longtime collaborator Tim Burton might do the trick, as he has a more than decent supporting cast to play off of and some real Oscar buzz behind him. On the other hand, if this movie is greeted with anything but the highest of praise, its chances of being represented in any category will severely diminish, including this one. Personally, I think that this may end up being another “Dreamgirls” (lots of buzz, little to show for it), but for now we can merely speculate.

Verdict: Everyone wants him to win, but I think he needs a slightly more stable project to generate a fresh nomination.

RICHARD GERE for “THE HOAX”

Despite having turned in many consistently excellent performances in the past, Mr. Gere has been just as consistently snubbed by the Academy. Nevertheless, here he is with “The Hoax” another early year contender with critics praising it as his best work yet (yeesh, how many times are we going to hear that this year?). He’ll have plenty of support I’m sure, and a well-timed DVD release could put him in a favorable position. Then again, he was in a prime position with “Chicago” as well, but ended up with nothing to show for it. If he can somehow fight his way through all the higher profile films of the year’s last quarter, he may have an outside shot.

Verdict: Less of an early year shot than Mr. Cheadle (see above), which leaves him with little hope as more than an outside contender.

TOM HANKS for “CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR”

It’s a bait-y role in a bait-y movie, and Mr. Hanks could certainly use some attention with a good hit after the on-screen abortion that was “The Da Vinci Code”. The character is perfectly ripe, and now all that really determines whether he gets the nod is how well liked the movie is upon its release (unless of course he’s just not very good in it, which is unlikely but not impossible). Despite a whirlwind of Oscar buzz, very little is known about the movie in the public eye, as there’s been no real press or trailer to speak of. The studio might want to step up their campaign before this potential gem goes right over our heads.

Verdict: He is a very strong bet, as the Academy loves veterans playing against type.

EMILE HIRSCH for “INTO THE WILD”

The film was much better received than anticipated, and a strong campaign from the studio could very well put the well-reviewed Mr. Hirsch in a prime position of dark horse nominee. He will need to stand the test of time against the rest of the season, featuring many other stars with much bigger names and reputations. He is a likely candidate for several precursors, but I’m pretty sure he’ll lose out the “young newcomer” nomination slot to James McAvoy.

Verdict: There’s much more buzz for this young performer than I’d anticipated, but it still probably won’t be enough.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN for “THE SAVAGES”

Despite appearing in two highly prestigious films this year with meaty characters in each (“Charlie Wilson’s War” being the other, although I suppose “Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead” deserves mention), Mr. Hoffman’s weakness may be that he very simply won too recently (then again, Tom Hanks won the same award two years in a row, so who’s counting). He’s already been receiving raves for this film thanks to early word from Toronto, although his co-star Laura Linney is in a much more prime position for a nod than he. Frankly, I think it much more likely that if he is nominated for anything this year, it will be for “Charlie Wilson’s War” in the supporting category, as this one is a bit too full to fit his presence.

Verdict: Look for him in another category, but there’s no room in this one.

TOMMY LEE JONES for “IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH”

I know I’ll have to say it again, but Mr. Jones is yet another contender with reviews pointing to this as the best performance of his career. The film has been generally well reviewed (with a few exceptions), so it basically comes down to whether the Academy is ready for another preachy Paul Haggis film. I still think the movie appears to be trying too hard, and it will probably miss out on the major categories. Which leaves Mr. Jones in a precarious position, because they may still choose to honor him, or just ignore him with the rest of the film. And of course, there’s always the outside chance he’ll be recognized for his work in “No Country For Old Men” instead (though that’s less than likely).

Verdict: He’s a strong bet, but there are stronger ones. It’s simply a matter of how many there are and how much stronger they are.

JAMES McAVOY for “ATONEMENT”

As I’ve already stated above, I believe that if anyone’s going to nab the “young newcomer” nomination spot, it’s going to be Mr. McAvoy. He’s riding high on the film’s huge buzz (currently the best of the season), and this would be a good opportunity for him to prove what he can do, having spent his last prestige project, “The Last King of Scotland”, perpetually in co-star Forest Whitaker’s shadow. However, despite the praise for his performance, he hasn’t exactly been receiving the kind of grand individual praise that other reviewed contenders have, which may or may not be detrimental.

Verdict: The film will likely be a good hit, and he is a very decent bet to be the breakout nominee.

VIGGO MORTENSEN for “EASTERN PROMISES”

Until reviews surfaced, the best thing this actor had going for him was sentimentality over his snubbed turn in “A History of Violence”. Now that reviews (and the movie itself) have been released, he has almost the entire critical body singing his praises, claiming that it’s his absolute career-best performance (aargh, again!). He’s also received a great many reviews that state the film as genuinely Oscar-caliber, which is always a good sign when coming from multiple sources, not to mention it’s the first film of the season actually released with that kind of support. Cronenberg’s films generally don’t fare well at the Academy, but if a strong campaign continues, that trend might just change here.

Verdict: It all depends on how AMPAS receives the movie as a whole, but as it is, Mr. Mortensen is one of the stronger contenders.

BRAD PITT for “THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD”

He won the Best Actor award at Venice, which many thought was undeserved when compared with his co-star Casey Affleck. The pivotal difference with the Academy is that there is a Best Supporting Actor category, into which the film’s campaign (should the studio decide to grant it one) will probably place Mr. Affleck. This leaves Mr. Pitt to remain on the forefront with more opportunity to have his still well received turn as the legendary outlaw go noticed. The film has received decidedly mixed reviews, with some claiming it Oscar-worthy, and others unmoved. If the campaign is there, then Mr. Pitt may have an outside shot at sneaking in, although the focus will more likely be on Affleck.

Verdict: Consistently overshadowed by his co-star, he still has the chance to make an impression if the movie gains any Oscar notice.

DENZEL WASHINGTON for “AMERICAN GANGSTER”

There has been some worry as to the case of category confusion between Mr. Washington and co-star Russell Crowe, but from the look of the film’s marketing angle, I feel it’s safe to assume that Mr. Crowe will be put into the Supporting category (if he does get a nomination, which is likely but not definite). The performance has received tumultuous buzz, and the film itself looks plenty meaty to receive a comfortable Best Picture nomination. Still, the only way we’ll really know is when the film is released and the critics are allowed at it.

Verdict: I feel confident in saying that the character and material seem right up Mr. Washington’s alley, resulting is another strong Best Actor contender.

OVERALL VERDICT:

PREDICTED NOMINEES

Daniel Day-Lewis
Denzel Washington
Viggo Mortensen
Tom Hanks
James McAvoy

PREDICTED RUNNER-UPS

Tommy Lee Jones
John Cusack
Don Cheadle
Brad Pitt
Emile Hirsch

What are your current Best Actor Predictions? Share them here!

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