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REVIVING THE BUZZ: ARE SPRING/SUMMER CONTENDERS COMING BACK?

Marion Cotillard, star of the successful La Vie en Rose, remains as one of this year's top Best Actress contenders

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By Johnny Alba

September is almost over; both Venice and Toronto have already announced their winners and there is barely one trimester more of eligibility for the Academy Awards. It seems to me we already know what films and performances are serious contenders and it doesn’t look like a year of surprise, last-minute spoilers (Clint Eastwood didn’t direct or produce anything this year, right?).

October, November and December are going to be very crowded as usual: from the top-of-mind contenders like Charlie Wilson’s War and American Gangster to those contenders flying “under the radar” at this point like The Kite Runner and There Will Be Blood. There are also potential contenders like the controversial Sweeney Todd, the "indie" darling The Savages and even the emotional drama P.S., I Love You; just to name a few. Nonetheless, some of the top Oscar races this year feel rather vacant and that's why we must face with an unlikely dilemma:

Can the contenders from the Spring and the Summer return to the Oscar race?

Let’s begin by analyzing this year’s weakest category: Best Actress. Back in May, critics unanimously raved about Away from Her and if we look back at 2007, the Alzheimer drama is still one of the year’s best films. Oscar winner Julie Christie collected massive praise for her emotional performance and ever since, she has been constantly named one of the dark horses in the Best Actress category. The film was released by Lions Gate and it’s already out on DVD (making it accessible for the audience that probably never had the chance to see it on a theater), the right campaign from the studio should be enough to earn Sarah Polley a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. But can Christie make the Best Actress shortlist? Well, she has to face fierce competition from other early birds…

Despite worldwide popularity, La Vie en Rose wasn’t submitted by France in the Foreign Language Film race (the French Academy opted for the touching animated film Persepolis instead). This really isn’t bad news for the biopic’s star Marion Cotillard at al: last year Spain passed on Pedro Almodovar’s vibrant Volver as their official selection and Penelope Cruz was still nominated for Best Actress in a more competitive scenario. Cotillard is already poised to become the next European sensation in Hollywood (she is in talks to costar on the big screen adaptation of the Broadway hit Nine) and the very likely vote of confidence she’ll receive from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (made of mostly European members) will put her in the spotlight prior to the Oscar nominations.

There’s also recovering buzz for the divisive Angelina Jolie and her highly praised performance in A Mighty Heart. Reviews for the film were mostly positive and while it didn’t cause an impact at the box-office, it did make more money than Away from Her and as much as the very profitable La Vie en Rose did. With much more exposure and star power, Jolie still has an edge over her competitors but can she beat the exaggerate media frenzy about herself and her husband? The upcoming DVD release of A Mighty Heart on Mid-October will try to solve that question…

Unlikely past years, the race for Best Picture doesn’t seem to have any serious contenders coming from the first half of the year. With the exception of the crowd-pleaser/moneymaker Hairspray, well reviewed films like Zodiac (already forgotten and out of contention) and even Away from Her don’t stand a chance in the Best Picture category. Hairspray itself isn’t a realistic possibility either; it is too lighthearted and teen-oriented to appeal to the aging Academy. It can still get nominations in the artistic and technical categories (or even in the Adapted Screenplay or Supporting Actor categories if AMPAS feels festive enough this year).

Back to the acting field: Richard Gere received many accolades for his performance on The Hoax. While he is likely to get a Golden Globe nomination for this showy performance, I don’t think AMPAS will even consider him as a long shot. Young and likeable Keri Russell will probably follow Gere’s footsteps: Golden Globe nod but nada from the elitist Academy.

Michael Moore didn’t humiliate the Federal government enough with Fahrenheit 9/11 so he decided to examine the country’s healthcare system in Sicko. The Diagnosis? Another hit for the controversial (and not so healthy himself) director and the top contender right now in the Best Documentary race.

Knocked Up delivered big bucks for Universal during the summer but should writer/director Judd Apatow start saving the date? I’m inclined to believe the film’s gross humor is more likely to do well with the HFPA than with AMPAS. Although, after Borat scored a screenplay nomination, naughty humor shouldn’t be counted totally out.

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