Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

THE BEST PICTURE RACE: WHAT WE HAVE TO WORK WITH NOW...

Is Atonement out of the Best Picture race, or not?

FEATURES

By Chris Shappley

It seems that we all survived the debacle that was the Golden Globes presentation. I think the one thing we all gained from the very short, very painful telecast is that we all hope the Oscars do not succumb to the same defeat. Please Hollywood, work something out so that people can get back to work and that Oscars can be the exciting show we all love. There, now I have said my peace.

So, all the major awards groups have either handed out their awards or revealed their nominations, and we now know as much as we are going to know about the Oscars until the nominations are announced in a few days. And what do we know exactly? Well, not much. However, let’s try to untangle the giant spider web that is the 2008 award season.

ATONEMENT

What was once the clear frontrunner has now become this year’s Dreamgirls. For some reason or another, this film did not hit home with Hollywood like most people thought it would. It has been shut out of the DGA, PGA and WGA awards giving it a very slim chance at getting a Best Picture nomination. It sill should do well in the technical categories and even win in some, but long gone are the days when this film actually had a chance at scoring a major award nomination.

INTO THE WILD

After the Globes didn’t pay this film enough attention, many worried about its awards chances, but the guilds have shown tons of love. Enough love, in fact, that it should come away with a Best Picture and even a Best Director nomination for Penn. The ads telling voters to vote with their hearts has apparently worked for this film, and who knows maybe there is even more love for this film then we think and it could win some of these guild awards making it a strong contender for a Best Picture win.

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Despite its lackluster showing at the Globes, this is still the film to beat. Almost everyone agrees that this is a near perfect motion picture. It has everything that voters love to award, and after the guilds hand out their trophies we will know for sure how strong its chances actually are.

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Of all the films that the Academy nominates, I think this film will surprise more people than the other films. This film should end up garnering many nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor. It’s a bold film that continues to build momentum every day that passes making it one of the strongest contenders of the year.

THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

It is this year’s Crouching Tiger, and because it is disqualified from a Best Foreign Language Film, the Academy may want to vote for it in some of the major categories. It has walked away with nominations from the PGA, DGA and WGA giving it extremely strong chances of making it into the same categories at the Oscars. Definitely look for it to receive a Best Director nomination and a Screenplay nomination.

JUNO

Juno received nominations from the Writer’s and Producer’s Guild, but not the Director’s Guild. It also has the love from audiences that some of the other films do not have. Expect it to battle it out with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly for that fifth slot, but I think voters will find its style too similar to LMS to actually vote for it in the end.

MICHAEL CLAYTON

This film continues to push through awards season with nomination after nomination. It is this year’s smart film that appeals to everyone. Expect it to take what used to be Atonement’s place in the five Best Picture nominees. It will also come away with a Screenplay nomination, but will the director’s race be too tight for it to squeeze it? Who knows…

SWEENEY TODD

This film looks as if it will meet the same fate as Atonement. It seems weird that both of the Golden Globe Best Picture winners might not even be nominated at the Oscars, but it also says something about how great of a year it was for film when there are so many films deserving of a Best Picture nomination. It might inch its way in, but at this point it looks very unlikely.

AMERICAN GANGSTER

Yet another film shut out by the guilds. It is difficult to say where this film will be nominated. Perhaps it has been lost, but never count out a successful box-office movie. It has grossed the most money out of all of these contenders keeping it in the race until the nominations are announced. It may have lost most of its steam, but it is still chugging along.

IN CONCLUSION

It’s easy to say that this will be our Best Picture lineup:

No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
Juno
There Will be Blood

But as we all know, one film usually slips in to throw everything off like last year’s Letters from Iwo Jima. However, keep in mind that Iwo Jima was a late bloomer last year because of its release date, and therefore didn’t come up in the guilds’ nominations. Do we have a film like that this year? Well, no, not exactly. But, any film in this article could pop up as a fifth contender. Most likely, that film will be The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which may replace Juno or Into the Wild.

My final predictions for Best Picture are as follows:

No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will be Blood

Share your final predictions in our forum, click here.
 

Discuss this article in our Blog!

Comments?
 

COMMUNITY

REVIEWS