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I Once Was Lost But Now I’m Found: A Personal Tale of One Man’s Quest to Predict the Best Picture Nominees, and the Immense Help Given Him by the SAG Nominations

SAG and Golden Globe nominations put Viggo Mortensen back in the Oscar game...

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By Tom Houseman

This year, the Screen Actors Guild took on the role of a fantastic dermatologist, and just like the skin of a horribly awkward teenager, things have started to clear up. I’ll admit that leading up to the SAG nominations, I was immensely confused about what films would join Atonement, No Country for Old Men, and Sweeney Todd on the list of Academy Award Best Picture nominees. Would it be There Will Be Blood, the divisive and ahead of its time P.T. Anderson epic? What about Charlie Wilson’s War, the early frontrunner that everyone assumed had died due to less than stellar reviews and a general loss of interest? The Kite Runner seemed like the perfect Best Picture nominee, but its reviews were far less than less than stellar (keep up, it gets more confusing from here), and some thought it might be too controversial. Juno skews too young and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly skews too… foreign.

So there were two spots on my chart with nary a contender in sight. The problem being that I couldn’t see any of the most obvious choices getting enough broad support to justify giving them a Best Picture nomination. I couldn’t see Juno, Charlie Wilson, American Gangster, or Kite Runner getting more than two or three nominations, at most, in addition to Best Picture, and that just left a bad taste in my mouth. But finally, thanks to the help of the glorious SAG, a contender has risen and made its mark on the race: Into the Wild. The film is dark but inspirational, a perfect blend for the Oscars. It is directed by the beloved Sean Penn and has gotten very good reviews, if only mediocre box office returns. Most importantly, this is a film that every branch of the Academy can embrace, and I can see it getting up to eleven nominations; only Atonement would be able to rival that number.

I have to thank the SAG for making things so simple by nominating only three serious Best Picture contenders—I can’t see 3:10 to Yuma or Hairspray making the cut—and leaving off Juno, Charlie Wilson, There Will Be Blood, and The Kite Runner. These films, while not eliminated from contention, all took serious hits in their Best Picture hopes. The other film that jumped onto my prediction list, albeit in a precarious position, is Michael Clayton. Clayton is another film that has a lot of support from a lot of directions, and is the serious type of film the Academy loves. Much like in 2005, there will be no light comedy among the Best Picture nominees, only dark dramas, although Into the Wild and Michael Clayton can both be seen as inspirational, and Sweeney Todd is more of a dark, dark comedy than a drama.

“But why, Tom,” you might ask, “did Sweeney not fall off your Best Picture list? Didn’t that come up empty at the SAG? Why not replace it with American Gangster?” Well first of all, slow down. I can only answer one question at a time. Yes, Sweeney did whiff big time with the Actors, but I don’t believe this is because of a lack of love for the film, rather a lack of awareness. Sweeney Todd is this year’s “secret” Oscar contender, held back from public viewing until the last minute. It can be assumed, therefore, that much like last year’s Letters from Iwo Jima, not enough voters saw it to be able to vote for it in time. This situation will be remedied long before the Oscars. I have no doubt that Sweeney will be embraced and go on to be nominated in several categories including Best Picture. Of course, I will quickly disown this theory if Burton is not nominated for the DGA, but until that happens, I will shout from the hilltops my allegiance to Sweeney Todd.

What else did the SAG tell us about how the Oscars will turn out? Quite a bit, actually. I can now safely say, like Heidi Klum drunk on power on Project Runway, that the following actors are definitively in or out. These statements must, of course, be read with the knowledge that any of my predictions are subject to change at any time.

In (But we knew that already): George Clooney; Daniel Day-Lewis; Julie Christie; Marion Cotillard; Ellen Page; Casey Affleck; Javier Bardem; Tom Wilkinson; Cate Blanchett (for I’m Not There); Amy Ryan; Tilda Swinton

In, thanks to the SAG:

Viggo Mortensen- this nomination combined with a Globe nom virtually assures him of an Oscar nod. Apparently the accent and the nude scene caught enough people’s attention, and voters have been impressed by his bad ass with a soft side in Eastern Promises.

Cate Blanchett (for The Golden Age)- while the film didn’t get very good reviews, she was almost universally praised for her performance, and when it comes down to it, there is too much love for this woman for anyone to stop her. If she starred in a remake of Norbit, she’d probably be nominated for that.

Hal Holbrook- Some people were still iffy on his chances, but now there is no stopping him. He has officially claimed the veteran spot and nothing can dislodge him now.

Catherine Keener- Much like Tilda Swinton, Keener is riding the love for her movie. She didn’t give a flashy performance like Blanchett, or transform herself like Ryan, but she impressed enough people with her understated role to guarantee herself a nomination in a weak category.

Out:

Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts- They were dependant upon love for Charlie Wilson’s War to get into their acting categories, but the love doesn’t seem to be there, and they’ve pretty much fallen off the map.

Josh Brolin- This could have been his chance to make a statement as the lead of No Country for Old Men, but despite the love for the film, he’s not going to be nominated.

Frank Langella- I never really got the buzz for him anyway, but his campaigners should be silenced now.

Amy Adams- Clearly her role in Enchanted was just too light for the SAG, and if it’s too light for them there is no way that the Academy will embrace it.

Jodie Foster- she could have spring boarded from her Globes nomination with a follow up here, but now any momentum she had is gone.

Max Von Sydow- There’s only room for one veteran in the Supporting Actor category, and Hal Holbrook is comfortably settled into it.

Ben Foster- Love for 3:10 to Yuma, but not his performance, is a kiss of death for him.

Jennifer Garner- She was hoping for SAG love to build off of, but she came up empty, which means her Oscar chances are nil.

The others, like Emile Hirsch, Ryan Gosling, Angelina Jolie, Tommy Lee Jones, and Ruby Dee, are still up in the air, with challenges for their spot coming from James Macavoy and Denzel Washington, Keira Knightley and Helena Bonham Carter, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and the Atonement women. There is still time before anything must be finalized, and I’m not yet in a place where I can say which of them will sneak in. I’ll save that for later.

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