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AFTER THE GUILDS: SHAPING UP THE BEST PICTURE RACE

No Country for Old Men has scored key nominations at the Top 4 Guilds (SAG, WGA, DGA & PGA)

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By Tom Houseman

Has there been a Best Picture race more confusing than this year’s? With the exception of possibly 2000, when Gladiator, Crouching Tiger, and Traffic battled for the award, I can’t think of one. The major Guild precursors have been announced, and rather than clearing things up, the nominations have vomited all over our predictions like Keira Knightley after dinner. Only two films have seen a strong showing at all three guilds: No Country for Old Men and Into the Wild. These two films are guaranteed nominations, but beyond that, things get very murky.

So there are three spots up in the air, and nine films that have a legitimate chance at getting one of the nomination slots. How did each film fare at the Guilds, and what does that mean for their chances? This is getting more complicated than the primary elections, so let’s lay everything out on the table and figure out where to go from there.

Definitely In:

Into the Wild- Easily the surprise of the year, there were a lot of questions surrounding Into the Wild’s Oscar chances. Box office was poor, and reviews were very good, but would this film make enough of a splash to make into the top five? A downpour of Guild support has boosted Into the Wild from a darkhorse for a nomination to the only legitimate contender to steal Best Picture from No Country for Old Men. Missing out on the Producer’s Guild hasn’t really hurt its chances, as its popularity will easily overcome this small setback. Certainly having Sean Penn at the helm helped, as the Academy loves actors who direct, but there is a lot of love for this film, and it could end up with the most nominations of any film, particularly if it doubles up in the Song category.

No Country for Old Men- Is it too dark? Is it too violent? Will it be too much for the Academy’s gentle pallet? No Country has confirmed what The Departed showed last year: it doesn’t matter if your movie is about puppy murderers, film people love what they love, and boy do they love No Country. This film has gotten support from every Guild, as well as being the critical darling of the year, and a Best Picture nomination is a foregone conclusion at this point. The only question left is did it peak too early, like Brokeback, and could it be upset by Into the Wild come Oscar night?

Probably In:

Michael Clayton- This was one that was up in the air, and even falling off the table at times, before the Guilds pushed it into the spotlight. Nominations for its screenplay and for Clooney seemed assured long ago, but now Michael Clayton looks like it is on the road to a Best Picture nomination. Weak box-office might hurt it, and it is not as flashy as many of the other nominees, but there is clearly a large block of support, enough to push it into the top five, especially with the Producer’s Guild supporting it. Look for this to be a film that gets split with a Best Picture nomination but no Best Director love.

There Will Be Blood- P.T. Anderson’s epic has been all over the map: nothing from the NBR, but lots of love from the critics; little love from the Globes but lots of support by the Guild. It’s been called a dark horse by some and the favorite by Sasha Stone. Will this very dark, twisted movie be championed by the Academy? It looks like it. Anderson did very well at the Oscars with Boogie Nights and Magnolia, but he has yet to see a Best Picture nomination; with nominations from the DGA and the WGA, this looks like it will get in. With the PGA support it seems to be in, but if one or more of the films mentioned below picks up a lot of momentum, There Will Be Blood could miss out on Best Picture, and only get a Director nomination.

On the Cusp:

Atonement- What happened to this sweeping historical epic? It’s been the favorite for months, riding on solid critical support and a boatload of Globe nominations. But the Guilds carry the most weight, and they have consistently overlooked Atonement. Letters from Iwo Jima came up empty with virtually every Guild, but that movie had Clint Eastwood at it’s helm, and the respect the Academy had for him was enough to give that film a Best Picture nomination. Joe Wright is certainly not the name that Eastwood is, but Atonement could still sneak in with a Best Picture nomination. Just as likely, though, is that it suffers the same fate as Cold Mountain, a similarly themed film about lovers separated by war. Cold Mountain was considered a frontrunner for Best Picture, but ended up only with a handful of acting and technical nominations, and the same thing could happen to Atonement.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- Foreign films have been doing better at the Oscars in the past few years, and this year’s most notable foreign Best Picture contender is Julian Schnabel’s biopic, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. It has been doing as well as it could be at this point: it didn’t expect to get any SAG nominations, but scored with both the WGA, the DGA, and the PGA. This is a film that has been getting a lot of respect, and if the Academy wants to fill the Best Picture list with dark dramas, then Diving Bell is the perfect choice for them. Of course, if they want something lighter then they’ll give it a Best Director nomination and give the Picture nomination to…

Juno- The only comedy on this list that doesn’t feature a slew of gruesome murders. Juno is trying to get onto the shortlist the same way that Little Miss Sunshine did, by winning voters over with lots of comedy and a “indie movie that could” story. The box-office is surprisingly strong for this film, and the critical support is there, but will the Academy take it seriously enough? It didn’t get the DGA nominations that LMS got, a nomination that would have confirmed its Best Picture chances. The PGA nomination certainly helps, although it would have been more of a boost had Diving Bell not also gotten one, but the biggest hit on Juno’s Best Pic dreams came from the SAG, which did not give it an Ensemble nomination. If the actors don’t give Juno their full support, then a Best Picture nomination is unlikely.

Spoilers:

American Gangster- Just when you think Ridley Scott’s film is down for the count, it pops right back up again to surprise everyone. On the back of a couple of Golden Globe nominations, a SAG Ensemble nomination, and stellar box-office, American Gangster has stayed in the Oscar hunt, although it is lagging behind. This film will need broad Academy support to get in, and the actors alone can’t propel a film that isn’t popular with the rest of the voting bodies. It would take a miracle at this point for Gangster to get a nomination.

Sweeney Todd- Suffering the same fate as Atonement, Sweeney was a frontrunner for a nomination, but suffered by shutouts with the SAG, WGA, PGA, and DGA. While the SAG setback could have been overcome, the miss at the DGA might have been the kiss of death for this movie. Burton has never been popular with the Academy, and Sweeney needed a lot of support to get a Best Picture nomination. Still, stranger things have happened, and the Golden Globe domination helped, although not getting a PGA nod might have offset that momentum. It looks like Sweeney will miss out, although it is still conceivable that Burton could get a director nomination.
 

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