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FORGET THE WILD CARDS; GET RID OF YOUR ACES, NOMINATIONS COME IN PAIRS

Cate Blanchett Might be an ACE in I'm Not There, but Oscar voters like their nominations in PAIRS

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By Lee Hernandez

A nomination is unmistakably a singular term, but nominations (plural) sometimes come in pairs of 2's and 3's. 2006 offered 6 pairs of 2: Judie Dench & Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal); Leonardo DiCaprio and Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Rinko Kikuchi & Adrianna Barraza (Babel), Jennifer Hudson & Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), Abigail Breslin & Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), & Jackie Earl Haley & Kate Winslet (Little Children). In 2005, Brokeback Mountain, earned 3 nominations for Michelle Williams, Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger, while North Country, & Capote served up 1 pair of 2 each. Like Brokeback, 2005's Million Dollar Baby, & The Aviator, earned 3 nominations a piece. It seems inevitable then, considering AMPAS' voting history, that this year they will vote for several actors from the same films, and consider them in pairs.

Up until now, we in the business of Oscar-buzzing, have placed our bets on individual nominations but we haven't discussed the inevitability of films receiving acting nominations in pairs of 2, 3 or more. We all agree that Cate Blanchett is heading towards a second Best Actress in a Supporting Role nomination but could nominations be in order for Todd Haynes' daring avant-garde extravaganza? I'm inclined to answer no to my own question, and rather rapidly.

Haynes's film seems to be exclusively the Cate Blanchett show. But I can think of many other films this year that might offer double and triple nominations. I'll begin with Elizabeth: The Golden Age, the commercially and aesthetically unsuccessful follow-up to the first Elizabeth, also starring Cate Blanchett in the title role. Critically panned, one might wonder why I am inclined to argue that this film could receive a pair of nominations. It's a legitimate question, but my answer is that two actresses: Cate Blanchett & Samantha Morton, have received some of the best ink for female performances of all year for their heartbreaking, consuming performances as Queen Elizabeth & Mary; Queen of Scots, respectively. Morton in particular, received the kind of reviews for her performance that past nominees Rinko Kikuchi & Catherine Keener got for their nominated work in years past.

Moving on, a pair of nominations is entirely viable for Before the Devil Knows Your Dead, Director Sydney Lumet's tantalizing, Hitchcockian story about two brothers who rob from their own parents' business. Directing quirky characters, and doing it well, should prove profitable to the long celebrated director, whose film has received recent comparisons to the Classic Dog Day Afternoon. But forget the director, the actors are receiving nothing but praise. From Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Ethan Hawke, to Albert Finney and Marissa Tomei, this cast seems absolutely poised to receive several acting nominations. Though they are all raved, my money is on Finney & Tomei.

American Gangster, has that clichéd "it's just good not great," universal review attached to it. Comparisons to The Departed have abounded and they were silenced just as quickly. Ridley Scott's film seems to offer little that's new and that might be a bad sign for its Oscar run in several categories. Denzel Washington, however; due to his star status as a Hollywood Heavyweight & his very baity role in the movie, still stands a chance at being nominated for Lead Actor. But what of the rest of the cast? Will Ruby Dee & Russell Crowe join Denzel? Gangster could be the film that receives the coveted 3 nominations for its actors but I'm inclined to say it probably will not be.

Joe Wright's resilient and seemingly brilliant follow-up to Pride and Prejudice seems the more likely recipient of multiple nominations. Saoirse Ronan is a Best Supporting Actress frontrunner; James MacAvoy's reviews for the film are an actor's dream come true and Keira Knightley or Vanessa Redgrave could secure their nominations with just a few precursor awards. Indeed, Atonement, is set to receive at least 2 nominations for acting; maybe 3, maybe even 4. Will Michael Clayton also score 3 nominations for George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson & Tilda Swinton? Nah, I don't think so. Wilkinson's got a great chance to be nominated; George stands a pretty good chance, and Tilda stands a decent chance. But they will not all be nominated. My guess is only one of these actors gets an acting nomination.

Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck stand a chance for Gone Baby Gone; Daniel Day Lewis & Paul Dano benefit from There Will be Blood buzz; Viggo Mortensen & Armin Mueller-Stahl continue to build buzz for Eastern Promises, Javier Bardem and Tommy Lee Jones are looking good for No Country for Old Men, and Ellen Page, and Jennifer Garner look good for Juno. Finally, Sweeny Todd, joins all of these films as a film that could score a maximum of 2 nominations for Johnny Depp & Helena Bonham Carter.

American Gangster, & Atonement, aren't the only films that could earn 3 nominations for their actors; Into the Wild, Charlie Wilson's War, In the Valley of Elah, & The Savages, could do the same. Sean Penn's brilliantly photographed and paced Into the Wild, could earn Emile Hirsch his 1st nomination; Catherine Keener, and Marcia Gay Harden respective 3rd nominations and a nomination for Hal Holbrook. Charlie Wilson's War could bring Julia Roberts & Tom Hanks back into Oscar's good graces and Phillip Seymour Hoffman could win his second Oscar in three years. Finally, The Savages, could give Laura Linney her first Oscar, PSH his second, and Phillip Bosco a wonderful career nomination.

At the moment, we do not know for certain; not even close. What we do know is that we should take a moment from predicting individual nominations, and begin to think about the pairs of actors that will be nominated for films together. Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson's shared frontrunner status was no accident. Both actors benefited from each other's raves. Who will work together this year? Will it be Laura Linney and Phillip Seymour Hoffman who star as brother and sister in their new film? Or will it be Sean Penn's eclectic group of stellar actors? Or maybe even the 7 different Bob Dylan's?

What team do you see overthrowing the competition?

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