Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

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BEST ACTRESS: THE RACE AS OF OCTOBER

Angelina Jolie's raved turn in A Mighty Heart is getting a second chance to lure the Academy this Fall

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By Myles Hughes

As we near the end of October, the Oscar season has already noticeably heated up. Upon their release, several prominent films have significantly gained buzz (Michael Clayton, Into The Wild) and lost buzz (Reservation Road, Elizabeth: The Golden Age); while some of the season’s heaviest hitters remain a mystery: among them American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War and Sweeney Todd. With only two months to go, and the competition becoming tighter and tighter, I would now like to direct your attention to the year’s first category to gain real buzz: Best Actress. Listed below (in alphabetical order), is an analysis of the top 12 current contenders for the prize, followed by my predictions on who will or won’t get nominated.

AMY ADAMS for “ENCHANTED”

I believe I’m safe in saying that very few could have seen this film getting any serious consideration from the Academy. Nothing against Enchanted, as it looks to be a commercial smash hit and a relative pleasure to its target audience, but before the test screenings that was the most it could hope for. And now, out of nowhere, Amy Adams has gained skyrocketing buzz from said screenings. From the sound of things, she could very well become this year’s Johnny Depp if things play out favorably. At the moment, this race is slow enough to allow her to sneak in quite comfortably.

VERDICT: She’ll definitely need precursors and a persistent campaign, but it’s certainly not unimaginable.

HALLE BERRY for “THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE”

It’s certainly refreshing to see Halle Berry back in the awards season spotlight for essentially the first time since her Monster’s Ball win. The film has had a significant amount of buzz (at least for its stars), as well as a strong ad campaign, and we all know Oscar loves a comeback. Unfortunately, this buzz may quickly fade, as early reviews indicate that her performance is good, but not great and her praise is often overshadowed by the unanimous acclaim for her co-star Benicio Del Toro (also making a bit of a return to the public’s attention). Since the film doesn’t have any realistic nomination prospects in most of the non-acting categories, she will need a powerhouse campaign and some significant precursors to even make consideration.

VERDICT: We’re all glad to see Halle giving quality work again, but if she’s going to return to the red carpet, it won’t be this year.

CATE BLANCHETT for “ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE”

In light of The Golden Age’s harsh reviews, the big question here is whether or not Cate Blanchett’s powerhouse performance, which survived even the most biting reception, will be able to qualify for a Best Actress nomination. The film itself is very likely to make an Oscar appearance in the Artistic/Tech categories and depending on how expansive its presence is in those categories, the Academy could conceivably decide to honor her based on the caliber of the performance (not to mention her snubbed win for the first film). However, I find it more likely that her nomination in the Supporting category for I’m Not There (a virtual shoe-in as of this writing), will have to count for both films, and her work here will go unrewarded.

VERDICT: I honestly don’t believe she’s a very legitimate contender anymore.

HELENA BONHAM CARTER for “SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET”

Now that her category confusion has been cleared up, it turns out that Helena Bonham Carter may in fact have had a safer prospect in the Supporting category. While Best Actress is still slow going, and she could still certainly slip in, she’s not even close to being a frontrunner at this point. Much depends on how well the film itself is received, and what precursors she can pick up along the way (Golden Globe is likely and would help a fair bit).

VERDICT: Don’t rule her out until the film is released and we can see what we’re dealing with.

JULIE CHRISTIE for “AWAY FROM HER”

Even now, she is still fondly remembered for her touching performance and for unofficially started this category’s buzz. Though she’s not quite as much of a frontrunner as she used to be, she will likely be able to ride on her veteran status and the film’s solid reviews and pull through with a nod. Now that the film has already been released on DVD, what she needs is a strong campaign to keep her in the voters’ minds when the year ends.

VERDICT: As long as she is kept on the radar via the precursors, I doubt she’ll have trouble getting a nomination.

MARION COTILLARD for “LA VIE EN ROSE”

If Julie Christie ignited the Best Actress speculation, then Marion Cotillard became its first frontrunner. Critics raved at her performance and in any instance that kind of unanimous attention would almost guarantee her a nomination. She currently has three things going against her: the film’s early release, its general lack of decent reviews outside of her performance and the fact that it was snubbed for the Foreign Language nomination (though Penelope Cruz proved that this was not such a big disadvantage last year). If the precursors keep her alive, she will be on the right track.

VERDICT: She is still a frontrunner, but her status as such is shaky and could potentially crumble if other contenders pull further ahead.

JODIE FOSTER for “THE BRAVE ONE”

It feels like Jodie Foster actually had stronger buzz before the movie was released. Which isn’t to say that she lost any at the time (in fact she gained some significantly), but the film’s overall mixed reception has made her once assured bid for a nomination turn into an uphill battle. She will have to rely on a reasonably hefty campaign, and a few of the other major contenders dropping out if she hopes to stand a chance.

VERDICT: She has a slim chance at making a comeback into the category that would signal an Oscar comeback, but it’s still slim.

ANGELINA JOLIE for “A MIGHTY HEART”

Yet another early-year contender, Angelina’s handicaps, aside from an early release and reviews not quite as excellent as they should have been, are going to be coming primarily from her over-publicized relationship with Brad Pitt (another Oscar hopeful for “The Assassination of Jesse James”, although he’s almost out of the running at this point). However, the fact that since the film’s release very few other major competitors have emerged may help her secure a nod in the end, as long as she has enough precursors to keep her afloat.

VERDICT: She has a strong chance, but if too many other contenders succeed she could be brushed aside to make room.

KEIRA KNIGHTLEY for “ATONEMENT”

This film has more Oscar buzz than anything else in wake of it’s outstanding Venice premiere, and if AMPAS acts accordingly with the other categories (Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, potentially Actor, etc.), then Keira Knightley might find herself with a nomination for mere association and star power. Reviews on her particular performance have been good but often not quite as overwhelming as in the case of, say, Julie Christie or Angelina Jolie for their films. The film itself in nearly guaranteed Oscar contention, but if she wants a nomination she’ll need some serious precursors to make it happen.

VERDICT: She’s a decent prospect, to be sure but there are plenty of stronger ones.

LAURA LINNEY for “THE SAVAGES”

The film has been receiving raves from Toronto, and she has been singled out on numerous occasions. If the film becomes this year’s Little Miss Sunshine, and she collects enough precursor and campaign love, translating that into a nomination should be a cinch. There is concern that with so many of the potential nominees being from a Comedy/Musical genre, there won’t be room for her. I wouldn’t worry about that, as more of those contenders are becoming long shots, and even if another makes it in, she could be considered overdue, and the quality of the performance should secure the nod.

VERDICT: Unless the film’s campaign isn’t up to snuff, she should be considered a very strong likelihood as of now.

ELLEN PAGE for “JUNO”

This film’s prospects keep looking better since Toronto, and she’s got Roger Ebert championing for her nomination. If the film is truly as good as reported, then its Original Screenplay nomination is a lock, followed closely by this nod for Ellen Page, who has the young stars’ distinction of not being featured in People Magazine with a story relating to rehab or pregnancy (which is ironically the focus of the film and her character). A decent campaign will keep her on the voters’ radar, and her frontrunner status will stay confirmed.

VERDICT: Right now she is a very safe bet, although precursors would certainly make her safer.

KERI RUSSELL for “WAITRESS”

Yet another early-year contender, she has perhaps suffered the most from her film’s early release, as she barely even has any buzz left to go around. At this stage of the game, it’s looking more and more likely that her raved performance will be remembered as more of a comeback than awards-bait. She’s a shoe-in for a few precursor nods (Independent Spirit and Golden Globe chief among them), but only the strongest campaign could keep her on the radar as of now.

VERDICT: I wouldn’t completely disqualify her, as she just might benefit if enough other contenders drop out.

OVERALL VERDICT:

Predicted Nominees

Laura Linney
Ellen Page
Marion Cotillard
Julie Christie
Angelina Jolie

Predicted Runner-Ups

Keira Knightley
Helena Bonham Carter
Amy Adams
Jodie Foster
Keri Russell

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