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BEFORE & AFTER: A RE-EVALUATION OF THIS SEASON'S TOP CONTENDERS

Will the very-Brit "Atonement" dominate this year's Oscars?

FEATURES

By Myles Hughes

Can you believe it’s November already? Another year come and almost gone. For those of us who are trying our best to make predictions for this year’s Academy Awards, it’s really getting into a frenetic sort of crunch time. With many of the biggest films of the year being released every week, we have to be constantly revising our shortlists to keep up. Therefore, I think that now would be a good time to pause for breath and reassess this year’s big frontrunners and where they stand at this point, whilst keeping perspective for the whole year. Below, listed in alphabetical order, is a list of some of the season’s biggest contenders, as well as how they seemed at first and what their odds appear to be right now. Following is a quick list of some initially strong films that are, for some reason or other, currently considered out of contention (though remember, never disqualify a film’s chances until January 1st).

NOTE: Foreign films, such as Lust, Caution, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, and Persepolis, are not mentioned on this list.

AMERICAN GANGSTER

Early Buzz: Perhaps one of the year’s earliest predicted contenders, the star power and Oscar-draw of Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Ridley Scott, Steve Zallian and Brian Grazer made for an easy buzz-gainer. After the trailer established the overall tone and look of the film (and made this readily apparent to the masses), this picture looked more than ever like a potential entry in the list of great crime movies alongside such classics s as The Godfather, Scarface and GoodFellas. However, this was also around the time when The Departed’s Best Picture win had begun to sink in and fears that comparisons would ruin its chances arose.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The film opened to strong commercial success and strong reviews (currently 77% on RottenTomatoes). However, the early worries that the film would be seen as merely good and not Oscar good seem to have been confirmed. Though several pundits have claimed it is a strong awards contender, a majority of the consensus is that it is simply too similar to most every gangster film made in the last 30 years to really distinguish itself.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Denzel Washington), Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs

THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD

Early Buzz: Andrew Dominik’s follow-up to his acclaimed Chopper was at a time highly anticipated and viewed as a potential contender… that is, back in 2005 when the teaser trailer first premiered. Since then, the film has been through development hell and back, with numerous edits to the original cut from Dominik, the producers and star Brad Pitt.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): Given the film’s elongated runtime, I’m inclined to think that Dominik’s cut may have survived after all. The film sits at 74% on RottenTomatoes, following a mixed festival reception and a Venice Best Actor Award for Brad Pitt that many felt was undeserved. The polarized views on the film as either Oscar-bait or indulgent trash will most likely dismantle its chances in most major categories, though it has prospects in a small handful yet.

Nomination Prospects: Best Supporting Actor (Casey Affleck), and various Artistics/Techs.

ATONEMENT

Early Buzz: Despite being based on a beloved novel, and coming from the same creative team who worked wonders with Pride and Prejudice, the early buzz was relatively quiet on this film. This was back when movies like Reservation Road and The Golden Age (both now out of contention) were dominating predictions lists and it simply didn’t seem big enough to distinguish itself at the time.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): My, how the tables have turned. Following a universally raved reception at Venice, the film has now jumped to the very top of every Best Picture shortlist. Enjoying glowing early reviews and a strong reception in Europe, it is now just waiting for its North American release to confirm it as the number one film to beat this year.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (James McAvoy), Best Actress (Keira Knightley), Best Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD

Early Buzz: Actually, I don’t remember there being very much early buzz for this film. The notable return of veteran director Sidney Lumet, a reasonably promising trailer, and strong but scant word from early screenings was all there was to go on.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The film opened to a strong helping of rave reviews (RottenTomatoes has it at 89%), which have propped it up to a comfortable if minor standing on prediction lists. The tone, themes and performances are all of the sort that AMPAS could very easily embrace but the film, in limited release and with even more limited publicity, may just fly under their radar.

Nomination Prospects: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Marisa Tomei), and Best Original Screenplay.

CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR

Early Buzz: Another of the earliest contenders, the star power and source material quite literally mean that this project could go either way. Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts haven’t had a decent hit between them for a long time but Philip Seymour Hoffman is on a winning streak so far this year and director Mike Nichols and writer Aaron Sorkin could potentially create sparks. The trailer promises a much more relaxed, humorous take on the subject of foreign relations than we’re used to, which could prove very refreshing for both audiences and the Academy.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The film will open this Christmas, alongside another hot contender (There Will Be Blood), so for now it’s all speculation. But for the most part it is still considered a solid frontrunner but also one that could easily fail.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Actress (Julia Roberts), Best Supporting Actor (Philip Seymour Hoffman), Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

EASTERN PROMISES

Early Buzz: Following up their collaboration on A History of Violence, which received raves all around but wound up short handed at the Oscars, David Cronenberg and Viggo Mortensen have reunited to create a companion piece this year, teaming up with Oscar-nominees Naomi Watts, Armin Mueller-Stahl and screenwriter Steve Knight. One of the more anticipated films of the fall, predictions this time around were more reserved, using A History of Violence’s faring as a reference.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): Following a great festival showing (it won the Audience Choice Award at Toronto), the film opened to strong critical consensus (89% on RottenTomatoes), if only decent B.O. considering the genre. Its release was considered the unofficial beginning of Oscar season, and though it gained considerable buzz, it has subsequently lost that buzz with the passing of time. Its fate now lies with the precursors it gets.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Viggo Mortensen), Best Supporting Actor (Armin Mueller-Stahl), Best Original Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

ENCHANTED

Early Buzz: Gosh, I don’t think there was any, was there? This film really came out of nowhere in terms of Oscar potential, following up early screenings with a surprising burst of buzz for its star Amy Adams. What initially looked like another Disney kids movie has become a serious Best Actress frontrunner.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The film opens later this month, so soon we will be able to see just how well founded this buzz is.

Nomination Prospects: Best Actress, and various Artistics/Techs.

GONE BABY GONE

Early Buzz: Ben Affleck’s directorial debut has given him the strongest buzz he’s had since his last Oscar win (for co-writing Good Will Hunting; he also shares writing credit here). It really says something about his former potential that, after years of acting missteps, so many are willing to forgive and re-embrace him. Though the film had very mild Oscar buzz until soon before its release, it was certainly on many lists of potential films to watch for.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The movie premiered with glowing reviews (92% from RottenTomatoes), and ignited serious buzz about the Affleck brothers’ potential at the Oscars. The film will likely be too small to be recognized by most major categories (Best Actor is too crowded for Casey, but his turn here has doubled his prospects for the Supporting category), but if enough other frontrunners fall flat, and it receives a boisterous campaign, there may still be hope.

Nomination Prospects: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Amy Ryan), and various Artistics/Techs.

I’M NOT THERE

Early Buzz: Once the sheer audacity of the project was revealed (a musical biopic starring six actors, including a woman and a black kid, all playing versions of Bob Dylan) the film raised plenty of eyebrows. As far as Oscar potential, however, it has been a largely let’s-wait-and-see approach for the most part.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): A strong festival showing (capped by Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress at Venice) has positioned the film into a favorable position. Overall reviews have been mixed (currently 78% on RottenTomatoes), so the film’s release later this month will ultimately determine where it stands.

Nomination Prospects: Best Supporting Actress (Cate Blanchett), and various Artistics/Techs.

IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH

Early Buzz: Perhaps the most obviously Oscar bait-y film of the year, Paul Haggis’s follow-up to Best Picture winner Crash initially received relatively solid, if reserved prediction buzz. Perhaps the biggest detriment was that Haggis’s last film won so recently and so unexpectedly (some would say undeservedly), which has led to caution when labeling it as a Best Picture candidate.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The film’s comparably understated release (68% on RottenTomatoes, plus a weak box office), have essentially left it in the same place it was before, only now its fall release will leave it less than fresh in voters’ minds. The likelihood of most major category nominations is very unstable, and it really depends on how the competition shapes up.

Nomination Prospects: Best Actor (Tommy Lee Jones).

INTO THE WILD

Early Buzz: It is a mutual consensus that Oscar loves to see a great actor become a great director and Sean Penn is a great actor. Having said that, his past projects have received little to no buzz and though Into The Wild features a strong source for its story, the director’s spotty resume did little to place this film on many prediction lists.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): The film opened to strong critical reception (82% on RottenTomatoes), and instantly reinvigorated faith in Penn’s direction (and Oscar prospects). It has become a prominent dark horse, however, until we see some precursors, that’s the most that can be said for it.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Emile Hirsch), Best Supporting Actor (Hal Holbrook), Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

JUNO

Early Buzz: Until its Toronto premiere, I doubt many people had heard of this movie, let alone put it on their Oscar shortlists. The team of a rising star (Hard Candy’s Ellen Page) and an exciting new director (Thank You For Smoking’s Jason Reitman) may have caught some mild attention.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): That Toronto premiere just turned Juno into the comedy to beat this season, ahead of previous prospective entries Margot At The Wedding (close to being out of contention at this point) and The Savages. In addition to being a Golden Globes lock, the film even has Roger Ebert championing for Page to get a Best Actress nomination. If the release brings in as much praise as the festival showing, then we could potentially be looking at a serious contender.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Actress (Ellen Page), and Best Original Screenplay.

Is The Kite Runner too low-key for AMPAS?

THE KITE RUNNER

Early Buzz: Given the outstanding popularity of the source novel, it’s incredibly easy to call this film a frontrunner before even seeing a trailer. Director Marc Forster has talent and potential snub sympathy; however, a largely no-name Middle Eastern cast could make it a hard sell for some audiences.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): A couple of early screenings are all we have to go on so far, although Ebert is behind it. It’s currently an unstable potential frontrunner with mixed prospects.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

MICHAEL CLAYTON

Early Buzz: Since his Syriana Oscar-win, George Clooney has been monitored closely for the way he chooses his work. This film from first-time director Tony Gilroy made it’s way onto a handful of shortlists, but for the most part appeared to be too much of a thriller for the Academy’s tastes.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): Now that it’s in release, this is perhaps one of the better-reviewed films so far this Oscar season (90% on RottenTomatoes) and although it’s box office was less than outstanding (it is a thriller after all), it has still managed to gain considerable buzz since its debut. The lasting power of that buzz will depend on how strong the competition turns out to be.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Actor (George Clooney), Best Supporting Actor (Tom Wilkinson), Best Supporting Actress (Tilda Swinton), Best Original Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Early Buzz: The Coen brothers haven’t had this much popularity since the 90s, and certainly haven’t had such strong Oscar buzz. The matching of their style with the source novel and a strong cast seemed like a potential match made in heaven, although its prediction list presence was varied.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): Impressive festival showing seem to have confirmed its status as in the running, and in particular Javier Bardem seems to be one of the year’s strongest nomination prospects in any category. Its release later this week will likely solidify its standing among the year’s best.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director(s), Best Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem), Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

THE SAVAGES

Early Buzz: The trailer and star quality poised this indie comedy to be this year’s Little Miss Sunshine. Referencing that film’s Oscar success, it made appearances on various shortlists, although how AMPAS ultimately receives it is anyone’s guess.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): A very strong festival showing placed it as a potentially Oscar-friendly dramedy (though Juno has since stolen much of its thunder). The actors (and maybe screenplay) are most likely to be represented, though Philip Seymour Hoffman, between this and Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead, will more likely be represented in the Supporting category for Charlie Wilson’s War, if anything.

Nomination Prospects: Best Actress (Laura Linney), Best Supporting Actor (Philip Bosco), and Best Original Screenplay.

SWEENEY TODD

Early Buzz: Tim Burton has had glimpses of Oscar potential, but for the most part his films have been largely ignored outside of the Artistic categories. His adaptation of this popular musical, however, has given him the best buzz of his career. The stars will have to align quite exceptionally for this film to get recognition beyond simply being popular. As it is, it is at the forefront of most prediction shortlists.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): Until its Christmas-time release, it’s impossible to say which way this project will tilt.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Johnny Depp), Best Actress (Helena Bonham Carter), and various Artistics/Techs.

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Early Buzz: Ever since Magnolia got him a Screenplay nod and fell just short of a Director nomination, Paul Thomas Anderson has been a filmmaker to watch out for whenever he releases a new film. His first in five years is also his first adaptation, which may work as well for him as it appears to be with the Coens (No Country For Old Men). The presence of Daniel Day-Lewis in any movie is also cause enough to place it on a prediction shortlist.

After the reception (Festivals, Reviews, Release): Early screenings seem to be confirming this as one of the year’s best. The Christmas-time release (alongside fellow contenders Charlie Wilson’s War and Sweeney Todd) will be the deciding factor, but for now it is in a very strong position.

Nomination Prospects: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Best Adapted Screenplay, and various Artistics/Techs.

OTHER NOTABLE PROSPECTS:

AWAY FROM HER: Best Actress (Julie Christie)
THE GOLDEN COMPASS: Various Artistics/Techs
GRACE IS GONE: Best Actor (John Cusack)
HAIRSPRAY: Various Artistics/Techs
LARS AND THE REAL GIRL: Best Actor (Ryan Gosling)
LA VIE EN ROSE: Best Actress (Marion Cotillard)
A MIGHTY HEART: Best Actress (Angelina Jolie)
ONCE: Best Original Song
THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE: Best Actress (Halle Berry), Best Actor (Benicio Del Toro)

FALLEN CONTENDERS (FOR MAJOR AWARDS):

THE BRAVE ONE: Mixed reviews, lost momentum
THE GOLDEN AGE: Poor reviews, will likely receive some Artistics/Techs
KNOCKED UP: Lost momentum and buzz
LIONS FOR LAMBS: Poor reviews
LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA: Poor early reviews, possibility of recovery upon release but unlikely
MARGOT AT THE WEDDING: Poor festival reception, lost buzz
RESERVATION ROAD: Poor reviews
WAITRESS: Early release, lost momentum and buzz
ZODIAC: Early release, complete loss of buzz

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