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BEST ACTOR: IS THE RACE WILDER THAN WE THINK?

Johnny Depp is among this year's Best Actor frontrunners (and most popular contenders)

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By Tom Houseman

A lot has been said about the Best Actor race this year, but one opinion keeps on coming up: this is a two-horse race between Daniel Day-Lewis and Johnny Depp from There Will Be Blood and Sweeney Todd. Oscar-Blogger Kris Tapley laid everything out on the table in his article "The Oil Man vs. The Demon Barber" shortly before going on to become head writer of  Variety's The Red Carpet District. I enjoy poking fun at Tapley (I still think he needs some kind of medication to help him realize that Hairspray should not be #7 on his Best Picture chart) but I also respect his opinions so I was pretty convinced that it was in fact the Depp and Day-Lewis show, with any other nominees playing the role of spectators.

A recent trip to The Oscar Igloo forums set a few thoughts in motion, when I read Allison Flynn's thread asking if she thought anyone had a shot at winning other than Depp and Day-Lewis. Contrary fellow that I am, my first thought was "It's only November! Of course other people have a shot!" I then made it my quest to prove that someone other than the oil man or the demon barber was going to take home the golden statue.

First I will point out arguments against these two men. Tim Burton does notoriously poorly with the Academy. His two most baity films had varying degrees of success with Ed Wood winning a Supporting Actor Oscar for Martin Landau but not getting nominations for Picture, Director, or Actor for Depp as the title character. Big Fish, which was buzzed heavily leading up to the nominations, received only a Best Score nod. Depp is a highly respected actor but his parts are frequently too weird for the Academy. Will a murderous barber be any different? Also, considering that Sweeney Todd is a mostly unseen commodity, the film could be a bust and Depp could end up not even nominated.

Daniel Day-Lewis is the heavy front-runner for his role in Paul Thomas Anderson's adaptation of Upton Sinclair's novel Oil!, but his character is most definitely a villain. While some actors win Oscars for playing villains (most recently Denzel Washington for Training Day and Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland), Best Actor usually goes to a hero (Russell Crowe in Gladiator) or a character with whom the audience can sympathize (Jack Nicholson in As Good as it Gets and Kevin Spacey in American Beauty). It is difficult to make too many arguments against Day-Lewis, as he is my front runner but still, Goliath has been beaten by David before… that’s why the story of David vs. Goliath is so interesting; if Goliath had crushed and killed David, it would be a much sadder story.

And now for a little history lesson to prove my most important point of the night which is that any frontrunner can fall and two-horse races are very susceptible to underdogs. In 2002, everyone was saying that there were only two people who could win the Best Actor Oscar: Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt and, you guessed it, Daniel Day-Lewis as the villain in Gangs of New York. Yet little Adrien Brody came out of nowhere to take it. Brody gave a critically raved performance in a highly acclaimed Best Picture nominee, The Pianist, and upset the two big dogs to win the Oscar.

So the question is: is there going to be an Adrien Brody this year? By that I mean, is there an actor giving the performance of a lifetime in a Best Picture nominee? I looked over my list and two names popped up as possibilities. I'll start with the one that doesn’t quite fit but could still work which is James MacAvoy from Atonement. MacAvoy is extremely popular right now and this is far and away his best part yet. Atonement has gotten glowing reviews and is many people's favorite to win Best Picture. The problem with this pick? Atonement is not the James Macavoy show the way that The Pianist was the Adrien Brody's show. He will have to compete for attention with Keira Knightley and a slew of supporting ladies. Unless Macavoy is flat-out brilliant, a win for him is unlikely.

Can the factors that contributed to Adrien Brody's win in 2002 help Emile Hirsch's buzz this year?

This is where the real darkhorse comes in; the guy I think could snatch the Oscar from the claws of Depp and Day-Lewis. Do you know who I'm talking about yet? If you guessed Emile Hirsch, then eat a cookie because you are right (if you're diabetic, make sure it's a sugar-free cookie). Sean Penn's film has been getting almost nothing but raves and is considered by many to be a favorite to get nominated for Best Picture. Hirsch's role is similar to Brody's in many ways: it is just him for much of the movie and he is playing a real person who undergoes incredible adversity (although in Into the Wild it is mostly self-imposed adversity). Hirsch also lost a lot of weight for the role, much like Brody did. Hirsch is an up-and-coming star who is well respected, and this could be his best work ever, depending on where his career goes from here. If Into the Wild gets a lot of support from The Academy, watch out for Hirsch to win the Oscar.

Would I predict Hirsch or MacAvoy to win the Oscar? Of course not. Hirsch just got moved off my shortlist to make room for Denzel Washington in American Gangster, and MacAvoy is barely in my top ten. Right now I'm predicting Daniel Day-Lewis to win, like I did in 2002 but I was wrong then, and I could be wrong now. The important thing to remember is that it is only November, and anything can happen. Just because there are frontrunners right now doesn't mean they'll be frontrunners in February or even that they'll be nominated. But if, in three months, it is still the Depp and Day-Lewis show, with Hirsch hiding in the wings, then Best Actor could make for the upset of the night.

Who is your Best Actor frontrunner?

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