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OSCAR® 2007 - 2008: THE CONFUSION AND CHAOS...

Ratatouille leads the Best Animated Film race but don't count Persepolis out...

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By Kelly Doucette

Best Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

The Surprise: Tommy Lee Jones, while an amazing character actor, received what some may consider a surprising nomination, seeing as the only real precursor nomination he received for the performance was a Golden Satellite award, an off-shoot of the Golden Globes, which he lost to Mr. Mortensen. I expected Jones to be nominated instead for Supp. Actor for NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, for which he earned BAFTA & SAG nominations.

The Snub: Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl), while a surprise last-minute contender who pulled off Golden Globe, SAG, and BFCA nods, as well as a Golden Satellite victory, was snubbed most likely due to the fact that he was playing in a comedy. However, the film was nominated in the Original Screenplay category, which, in recent years, has warmed up to independent comedies (see: Sideways, Little Miss Sunshine…)

Who Will Win?: A previous Oscar winner 18 years ago for MY LEFT FOOT, Daniel Day-Lewis has proved a formidable talent when it comes to screen acting, despite a lengthy absence from films between 1998 and 2001. His mesmerizing portrayal of a greedy oil tycoon driven insane by the sudden deafness of his adopted son and his eventual alcohol abuse.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Ellen Page – Juno
Laura Linney – The Savages
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age

The Surprise: Former two-time nominee Laura Linney, who, like Tommy Lee Jones, received a Golden Satellite nod for Dramatic Acting but was snubbed from SAG, the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the BFCA.

The Snub: Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart). Kind of interesting because her hubby Brad Pitt’s ex-wife, Jennifer Aniston joined the Academy voters just last year… Is she just too big a star to be nominated? Clooney is the only real MOVIE STAR nominated this year.

Who Will Win?: This is a close one. While I would prefer Christie, one of my all-time favorite actresses riding on her comeback role in FINDING NEVERLAND, I feel the Academy may go for Cotillard or Page instead, in that order. However, the last actress to win an Oscar for a foreign language performance was Sophia Loren for her work in TWO WOMEN (1960). What works in her favor is that the Academy has embraced real-life portrayals (with the exception of Hilary Swank) in this category the past few years (Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Reese Witherspoon, Helen Mirren).

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James

The Surprise: No one really, but with the surprising snub of INTO THE WILD in many categories, I’m surprised they even rewarded it at all (Hence the nod for Holbrook). But then again, this category is generally favorable to Hollywood legends (Jack Palance, Burt Reynolds, Albert Finney, Alan Arkin…)

The Snub: Tommy Lee Jones for No Country for Old Men. He received BAFTA & SAG nods as Best Supporting Actor and a SAG nod for Best Ensemble. However, with a crowded category, the Academy decided to nominate him instead for an equally-deserving but less-seen performance in the Best Actor race (his first lead nomination).

Who Will Win?: Javier Bardem for his silent work as a hit man in the Coen Brother’s comeback film. However, I would love to see Holbrook cross the stage (that is, if the actors even decide to attend).

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Ruby Dee – American Gangster

The Surprise: I never in my wildest dreams imagined Ms. Dee would be nominated, despite SAG nodS as Best Supporting Actress & Best Ensemble. The film, like INTO THE WILD, was almost completely snubbed, but she, like Holbrook remained in the race due to the fact that they’ve never been nominated before in their lengthy and impressive careers.

The Snub: Vanessa Redgrave (ATONEMENT), while snubbed by the Golden Globes and SAG, she reaped a BFCA nod and several festival awards in the awards season. However, unlike Holbrook, he brief appearance was not impressive enough, apparently, to gather another Oscar nomination.

Who Will Win?: While my gut instinct is Blanchett, who was snubbed for a win for NOTES ON A SCANDAL (dang you Jennifer Hudson). However, in such an insane year, I feel that Ryan could pull off an upset victory, although she’s destined to lose the SAG award (she lost the GG to Blanchett).

Best Director of a Motion Picture

Jason Reitman – Juno
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
P.T. Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Surprise: Jason Reitman. WTF??!!! His nod is obviously due to the tremendous popularity of the film and not his own actual achievements. He has failed to gather major precursor nominations, not a DGA, Golden Globe, BFCA, just Best Director honors at the Chicago Film Festival and the Independent Spirit Awards.

The Snubs: Too lengthy to describe in words, so I will list them instead. Sean Penn for Into the Wild, Ridley Scott for American Gangster, and Joe Wright for Atonement. While Penn was nominated at DGA and BFCA, he was snubbed by the Golden Globes. Scott and Wright were nominated at the Golden Globes but snubbed by the DGA.

Who Will Win?: P.T. Anderson. While Schnabel won the Golden Globe and the film itself won the Globe for Best Foreign Film (made by a U.S. production company, it is ineligible for the Foreign Film category at the Oscars), the film's surprising Best Picture snub could hurt his chances. The Coen brothers on the other hand, while frontrunners for their 3 other nominations (writing, producing, editing), suffer due to the fact that they are a tandem nomination. This is only the third time a directorial duo has been nominated and only once (Robert Wise-Jerome Robbins in 1962 for WEST SIDE STORY) has a duo won.

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody – Juno
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins – The Savages
Nancy Oliver – Lars and the Real Girl
Jim Capobianco, Jan Pinkava, & Brad Bird – Ratatouille

Surprise: Ratatouille. However, an animated film has not yet been nominated by the Globes or WGA in either category. And the snub from BAFTA (which awarded Shrek a writing award) makes the Annie nomination the screenplay’s lone precursor. However, the film is amazing and I’m happy to see it recognized here.

Snub: None. I’m happy as can be. The one category that went exactly as expected. Although some thought that EASTERN PROMISES would for sure be nominated here as well as Best Actor.

Who Will Win?: Comedic dramas have dominated this category the past couple of years with victories for LOST IN TRANSLATION, SIDEWAYS, and LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. Juno is the one to beat. Although, I’d just love to see Ratatouille become the first animated film to win a writing award. However, the surprise winner could very well be the well-received legal thriller MICHAEL CLAYTON.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sarah Polley – Away from Her
Christopher Hampton – Atonement
P.T. Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Ronald Harwood – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Surprise: Sarah Polley. While the film has garnered critical acclaim for Christie’s acting, it has failed to receive the critical precursors for its writing or production. The Academy must secretly love this film.

Snub: Sean Penn. Was it really his divorce announcement that ended the film’s hopes of Oscar glory? I mean, why let a man’s PERSONAL life affect his brilliant PROFESSIONAL achievements? Also, James Vanderbilt for ZODIAC, which despite a complete Golden Globe and BFCA shut out ranked in writing nods at WGA, the Scripters (adapted script ceremony), and Golden Satellite.

Who Will Win?: Who else but the Coens? They have the best reviewed film of the year and BFCA and Golden Globe victories under the belts. While a duo nod hurts their directing victory chances, it only boosts this particular nomination.

Best Picture

Paul Webster, Tim Bevan, & Eric Fellner – Atonement
Mason Novick, Lianne Halfon, & Russell Smith – Juno
Jennifer Fox, Kerry Orent, & Sydney Pollack – Michael Clayton
Scott Rudin, Joel Coen, & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Daniel Lupi, JoAnne Sellar, & P.T. Anderson – There Will Be Blood

The Surprise: Atonement. It's my favorite film of the year (in between THERE WILL BE BLOOD (#1) and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (#3). While awarded Best Picture honors at the Golden Globes (most nominated film with seven total nods) and now the most nominated film at BAFTA (14 nominations), it was snubbed by SAG, WGA, DGA, and the ACE Eddies (for editing). Early acclaim and critical raves most likely secured it an early spot in the race, despite what the Guilds may think.

The Snub: INTO THE WILD and AMERICAN GANGSTER. While Gangster was well-received at the Globes and earned buzz by SAG, it was not THAT good of a film, especially when compared to GLADIATOR. Into the Wild, while snubbed by PGA and by the Globes (in major categories), earned the most nominations at SAG and BFCA and earned notice from the DGA, WGA, and ACE Eddies.

Which Will Win?: While everyone is saying NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, the best reviewed film of this past season, it’s loss at the Globes could be a sign of things to come. Remember please that FARGO, 13 years ago, won numerous awards in many categories, and even won Oscars for its writing and for Frances McDormand as Lead Actress, but failed to win the Best Picture Oscar. However, it was completely shut out by the Globes, unlike this film, which won Globes for its writing and Javier Bardem as Supporting Actor. My surprise bet is Atonement. Juno just seems a bit too controversial for the elderly members of the Academy to vote for.

Best Animated Feature Film

Brad Bird – Ratatouille
Chris Buck & Ash Brannon – Surf’s Up
Marjane Sartrapi & Vincent Parronaud – Persepolis

The Surprise: While nominated for 10 Annies, SURF’S UP was snubbed by BFCA, Golden Globes, the PGA, and BAFTA. How in the world did it get a nomination? No way this will win, especially the year after another penguin movie won in this category. Also, I had no idea the producers of PERSEPOLIS even submitted the film for this category as well as the Foreign Film category. When I read the shortlist of potential Foreign Film nominees, I was devastated to learn that this film was “out of the running”. But now that it earned a nomination, I can sleep easy.

The Snubs: The Simpsons Movie. Okay, this had no chance in hell to be nominated despite nominations at PGA and the Golden Globes and Annie. It may be a popular franchise but it has lessened in quality over recent years and to honor this stretched-TV movie-wannabe would be sacrilege. Also, BEE MOVIE. Not that it was a great film by any means but it would be great to see Jerry earn an Oscar nomination for a “film about nothing”.

Who Will Win?: Ratatouille, hands down. However, a penguin movie has won some sort of Oscar for production the past two years. Could it be a surprise victory for SURF’S UP? We’ll have to see what the Annies have in store. CARS lost a surprise Oscar last year despite picking upawards at PGA, Annies, and Golden Globes.

RIP – Heath Ledger (1979 – 2008)

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