Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW: OUR PREVIEW

There Will Be Blood could become a serious Best Picture contender with a NBR victory

FEATURES

By Clayton Davis

On Wednesday December 5th, the National Board of Review will officially kick off Oscar season. Sure, we've had the Independent Spirit Award Nominations and the Golden Satellites but the NBR is the first precursor that really matters and could make a film or actor a bona-fide contender.

Last year; this group of professors, critics and other educated movie-goers alike went for Clint Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima. It kicked off a strong campaign for "Letters" to make a run for Best Picture and despite some belly flops along the road, the Japanese drama made the cut in the end. In 2005, they went for George Clooney's self directed and written Good Night, and Good Luck which would stay a definite lock for a nomination the whole season. So to sum up, the NBR has a lot of power over the awards season especially with their Top 10 Best Films.

So who would benefit the most from a NBR win? There's consensus out on the web of so-called "locks" for nominations; Atonement has been touted as the early favorite since early summer and would become a big threat for the win if it did win the NBR. As long as it makes the Top 10, it should stay afloat all season (although there have been exception: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King not making the top 10 or Quills being named Best Picture but failing to receive an Oscar nomination)

Consequently, There Will Be Blood would be locked and loaded if it won the title of Best Picture of the Year. Paul Thomas Anderson's tale of revenge, corruption, and oil has been floundering for the past few weeks with mixed reviews and being nearly shut out at the Satellites (not that it really matters). If it goes on to win, this could be the momentum starter to lock in to the Best Picture race respectively.

On the acting front, the NBR often rewards body of work which gives Denzel Washington ( American Gangster, The Great Debaters), Tommy Lee Jones, (No Country for Old Men, In the Valley of Elah) Christian Bale, (3:10 to Yuma, Rescue Dawn) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, The Savages ) something to possibly look forward to. Grace is Gone's John Cusack would get a huge boost for his Oscar campaign with a Best Actor win, especially getting such great early buzz. In the end I'm feeling a curveball coming such as Emile Hirsch's acclaimed and beautiful performance in Into the Wild.

The ladies are a bit boring and even more unpredictable. I don't expect them to reward Amy Adams in Enchanted or Helena Bonham Carter in Sweeney Todd. Julie Christie seems like an easy pick for early-year film Away from Her but I foresee Marion Cotillard as the early year favorite to win the Best Actress award for La Vie en Rose. Watch out for Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart or Cate Blanchett for a combined win for her atrocious film Elizabeth: The Golden Age and Todd Haynes' I'm Not There too.

The director award is always a left field throw which throws the awards season out of wack for a minute or two. (Examples being Michael Mann for Collateral and Philip Noyce for The Quiet American). With no one really predicting them, we started to believe for a moment it could happen, until the other precursors followed so I expect this to be a year where we get something unexpected such as Sidney Lumet's beautiful and tension driven Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. If that doesn't happen, Paul Thomas Anderson or Marc Foster would be good choices to take the prize too.

National Board of Review Predictions

Best Picture: There Will Be Blood
Alternate: Atonement

Best Director: Sidney Lumet-Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Alternate: Marc Foster-The Kite Runner

Best Actor: Emile Hirsch-Into the Wild
Alternate: John Cusack-Grace is Gone

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard-La Vie en Rose
Alternate: Julie Christie-Away from Her

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem-No Country for Old Men
Alternate: Casey Affleck-The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton-Michael Clayton
Alternate: Cate Blanchett-I'm Not There

Best Original Screenplay: John Carney-Once
Alternate: Kelly Masterson-Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson-There Will Be Blood
Alternate: Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard-Gone Baby Gone

Best Cast Ensemble: Juno
Alternate: Into the Wild

Breakthrough Actor: Sam Riley-Control
Alternate: Glen Hansard-Once

Breakthrough Actress: Nikki Blonsky-Hairspray
Alternate: Ellen Page-Juno

Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Alternate: Beowulf

Best Debut Director: Tony Gilroy-Michael Clayton

Foreign Language Film: Lust, Caution
Alternate: The Diving Bell and Butterfly

Top 10

There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
American Gangster
Once
Gone Baby Gone
The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Sweeney Todd

What are your NBR predictions?

Discuss this article in our Blog!

Comments?
 

COMMUNITY

REVIEWS