Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

MIXED MOVIES, MIXED FEELINGS: THE 80TH ACADEMY AWARDS ANNOUNCE!

Cate Blanchett earned two more Oscar nominations for her works in The Golden Age & I'm Not There

FEATURES

By Joey Magidson

Wow. This may in fact be the most random group of nominees I can ever remember. Plenty of expected nominations were not given (no Into the Wild/Eddie Vedder in Original Song, but I’ll stick to the big 8 for now) and no clear-cut favorite really emerged. Here’s what went down:

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees here were Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook, and Tom Wilkinson. No curveballs thrown here in this category, though Hoffman and Holbrook were not locks by any stretch. No big snubs, and it seems like it’s Bardem’s to lose. Essentially, nothing has changed here.

Best Supporting Actress

The expected trio of Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan, and Tilda Swinton made the cut here. A nice little surprise here in Ruby Dee’s small but memorable work in American Gangster getting recognized. Saoirse Ronan’s buzz had died down but she came back to get nominated here, and her and Dee probably took away a nom from Catherine Keener, the first of many snubs for Into the Wild this morning. Essentially, nothing much new when it comes to frontrunners. Blanchett and Ryan head to head.

Best Actor

George Clooney, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Johnny Depp were the expected recipients of nominations here. Viggo Mortensen overcame all the jitters about another snub to get his first nomination. The big surprise was Tommy Lee Jones getting the nod for In The Valley of Elah (a film with no buzz at all) over Ryan Gosling and Emile Hirsch. This race is still all but over (a certain man named Daniel is the frontrunner here) but we got a real shocker here with the Tommy Lee Jones mention.

Best Actress

Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, and Ellen Page have been fighting over the award for months now, and the Oscars did nothing to change that. All three got nominated, along with a second mention for Cate Blanchett, which was mildly surprising but not totally unexpected, and a real out of leftfield choice in Laura Linney. This was a deserving performance but one that had been shut out completely up until now. A real unexpected turn of events, mostly at the expense of Angelina Jolie. The 3 horse race should continue strong, with Christie still in the lead.

Best Original Screenplay

This category was about the same as was expected. Diablo Cody’s script for Juno is the frontrunner, but she has strong competition in 2 other women writers (a first I believe) which are Nancy Oliver (for Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (for The Savages). Cody’s two biggest threats here are Tony Gilroy’s script for Michael Clayton and Brad Bird’s script (along with Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco) for Ratatouille, but look for Diablo to dance with the devil come Oscar night.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prestige was the name of the game here. We all expected Christopher Hampton to be nominated for Atonement, as well as Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, the Coen Brothers for No Country for Old Men, and PT Anderson for There Will Be Blood. What we didn’t expect was for Sean Penn’s script for Into the Wild to be left off the list, and not for the latecomer Zodiac either, but for Sarah Polley’s Away from Her. A big surprise with the Wild snub, essentially making Atonement, No Country, and Blood go up against each other. The win might match whoever takes Best Picture, but the safe money for now is on the Coen boys.

Best Director

There was only one unexpected nominee here, and it was a shocker indeed. The drought for Sean Penn and Into the Wild continued, and the benefactor here was the supposed afterthought Jason Reitman. I put him in my fantasy ballot on a whim, but it looks like fantasy became reality here. He’ll be joined by the 3 heavyweights in Julian Schnabel, the Coen Brothers, and PT Anderson. The fifth member would have been more of a shock a few months ago, but as of the past few weeks we’ve all pretty much given a slot to Tony Gilroy, and the Academy solidified that here. Schnabel is a dark horse (and maybe even Reitman), but this is another category for Joel and Ethan Coen to most likely win.

Now…..the big one:

Best Picture

At this point, nobody should be surprised Into the Wild was left off. The Academy clearly wasn’t a huge fan of it (and apparently not big fans of Sweeney Todd either). No Country for Old Men, Michael Clayton, and There Will Be Blood were the expected nominees. Juno seemed to be on the cusp of getting snubbed, but made the cut, and Atonement had a somewhat surprising nomination. No Country doesn’t have to worry about Into the Wild or The Diving Bell and the Butterfly here, but I think maybe Juno is a bigger threat to No Country’s crown than we previously thought.

Overall No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood led the way with 8 nominations each, and there is no clear frontrunner. Both of these films look like they’re in line for good nights, but I see a certain comedy about a pregnant teenager coming on strong. Looks like we’ll just have to wait and see (provided of course the Cloverfield monster or the writer’s strike doesn’t attack and destroy the show)!

Share your own reactions here.

Discuss this article in our Blog!

Comments?
 

COMMUNITY

REVIEWS