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PREDICTIONS 2007

THE LONE DIRECTOR SPOT: WHAT IT IS, WHY IT HAPPENS & WHO THE TOP CONTENDERS ARE...

Sean Penn is one of the top contenders for the "lonely spot" in Best Director

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By Josh Kirschenbaum

Every year, when the nominations are announced, there is usually at least one nominee in the Best Director category whose film fails to make the Best Picture lineup. It is something of an honor for this person and it signifies that the direction has transcended the film. The "lone director spot" has been a trademark of the Oscars, recurring nine of the past ten years. As such, it has its own patterns and tendencies that help to predict who will get that prestigious fifth spot.

This habitual discrepancy can come as a result of many things: Not the least of which is controversy. If a film is too controversial, AMPAS will often choose to deny it a Best Picture nomination but if this film is too good to ignore, it will be rewarded with a lone Best Director nomination. Some recent examples include Paul Greengrass, director of the controversial 9/11 film United 93, and Mike Leigh, director of Vera Drake, a drama that centers around a woman who performs illegal abortions. Both are excellent films but AMPAS doesn't want the backlash that would come if they were to bestow a Best Picture nod. This year, the most controversial film seems to be The Kite Runner, Marc Forster's adaptation of the best selling novel. The film deals with child abuse, which is relatively taboo in Afghanistan, where the film takes place. Its young stars were fearful of violence from other afghani children at school and so the film was pushed back from a November release date to December after the kids school year has ended. Forster hasn't had the best luck in the Director category, missing out on a nomination despite his film, Finding Neverland, garnering a Best Picture nomination. This could be the project that tips the scales in his favor, allowing his directorial skills to shine above the controversy surrounding the film.

Stylization plays a big role in the Picture-Director split. When a filmmaker powerfully inserts his or her directorial style into a film, AMPAS tends to notice, even if they don't love the film enough for a Best Picture nomination. Fernando Meirelles, director of City of God, is a good example of this. While AMPAS didn't like the film a lot (many thought it was too violent), Meirelles' direction was too good not to recognize. Stylization can backfire though; just ask Baz Luhrmann, who was denied a Director nomination while his super-stylized film Moulin Rouge! made the top 5 in the Best Picture category.

Paul Thomas Anderson has the most defined style of any director this year. His film, There Will be Blood, is being compared to Citizen Kane. If the film gets rave reviews (which seems likely) but fails to strike a chord with audiences (which also seems likely) he'll be its best bet for a nomination. Sean Penn's direction of Into the Wild is very original. He has a great chance to get a lone director nomination as well, especially considering how much AMPAS loves actor-turned-directors.

Sometimes a movie is just too weird for AMPAS to completely embrace. Mulholland Dr. got some of the best reviews of 2001 but was far too unconventional for the general viewing public, let alone for AMPAS. The film ended up with a single nomination for its director, David Lynch. The similarly raved Being John Malkovich failed to make the Best Picture lineup in 1999. However, a nomination for first time director Spike Jonze was not beyond the film's reach. The most outlandish project of the year is Todd Haynes' I'm Not There, a pseudo-biopic of Bob Dylan in which seven different actors play the man. More accurately, they play people who aren't quite Dylan but represent a certain point in his long and varied career. While the film is probably too far out for AMPAS, Haynes is a very talented filmmaker (his last film, Far From Heaven, received a glut of critical praise) and he could very possibly be honored in the director category regardless of his film's Best Picture chances.

Industry respect is a big factor in splits between the picture and director categories. Underappreciated veterans or cult directors who have built a huge following over the years can easily be nominated regardless of the quality of their films, which are usually quite good yet are unable to connect with AMPAS. Ridley Scott (for Black Hawk Down), Peter Weir (for The Truman Show)and Pedro Almodovar (for Talk to Her) are some of the more recent examples. This year, Sidney Lumet is the oldest in the bunch at 83 years old. Massive respect built over a career of over 50 years could likely lead to a nomination. Tim Burton has a large following and could make a show in this category even if AMPAS is put off by the prevalent violence in his latest project, Sweeney Todd. Ethan and Joel Coen are revered as one of America’s greatest directors (They count as one person because they'd be nominated together). They will probably have no trouble getting a director nomination even if AMPAS thinks their latest film is "too literary."

Of course, the categories could perfectly match up (like in 2005) or there could be multiple differences (like in 2001). The majority of these films have yet to be released. There is no way to make perfect predictions this early, but more than likely, the lone director will be one of the above listed.

Do you agree? Who is the most likely candidate to get the Lone Director Spot?

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