Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

THE EARLY GOING: MID SUMMER SHOTS IN THE DARK

American Gangster remains as one of this year's top Oscar contenders

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By Danny West

Well, we’re halfway through June. That means that we’re slowly working our way through the visual effects contenders and superhero sequels and soon we’ll finally arrive at Oscar season.

Labor Day can’t come soon enough this year.

How sad is it that in 2007, seeing trailers for Evening is enough to get excited? We’ve had no strong early contenders this year and virtually every heavy buzz film is being released within the span of about a week in early November. Although the plans will surely shift around as studios start mapping out the chess pieces, it’s a good idea to just save up your loose change and have your own little weeklong film festival at your local theater come the middle of autumn.

Until then, we have Evening, along with the following educated guesses by me.

Best Picture:

Right now, there isn’t a studio out there with more potential than Focus Features. This could be the year of Focus. They have no less than four or five potential Oscar winning films and I couldn’t be happier for them. Through messy big masses marketing and the same old ho-hum popcorn trash, they have persistently put out artistically relevant features and I think that they will be rewarded big time.

The film that I think will lead their strong pack is Reservation Road. Although minimum footage has been provided right now, it has all the elements it takes to receive a vast majority of AMPAS votes. There’s the constantly second-placed Joaquin Phoenix, the increasingly successful writer/director Terry George and the ever-consistent Jennifer Connelly. Furthermore, RR strays away from political stances, pretentiousness and all of the other annoyingly constant attributes that other films will have made us sick of by the end of the year.

Prediction: Reservation Road
Runner Up: Lions For Lambs

Others: There Will Be Blood, Sweeney Todd, American Gangster, Evening.

Best Director:

The most obvious thing to do is latch onto the Best Picture contenders. It’s hard to name Terry George right off because of all the overdue candidates, especially Ridley Scott. As is typical, this category will probably go to at least three and probably four of the Best Picture films and then the last will go to either a sympathetic choice, or a film that had undeniable excellence in direction, but lacked the elements to make AMPAS go ape for. Tim Burton, we’re probably talking to you.

Prediction: Ridley Scott.
Runner Up: Terry George.

Others: Tim Burton, Paul Thomas Anderson, Marc Forster, Robert Redford.

Best Actress:

Inevitably controversial statement alert: Cate Blanchett is the best actress in the business today. Even though it’s a sequel and typically AMPAS doesn’t go for them, it’s so hard to say she won’t be nominated. Possibly impossible. With that said, I don’t think that she can win because it’s a reprise role. If she doesn’t get a nod at all, then never again will I predict any actor or actress getting a nod no matter how good they are if the film is an additional installment.

Angelina Jolie looks too good to ignore—in the film, not in the tabloids, those are quite ignorable—and Laura Linney deserves an Oscar so much it’s unbearable. Naomi Watts is my sentimental favorite although it seems pretty obvious that she’ll have a co-star taking away the attention. If Evening doesn’t land at least one nomination among all those women in some acting category, it will be a miracle.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett
Runner Up: Jennifer Connelly

Others: Angelina Jolie, Laura Linney, Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, Keri Russell, Keira Knightley, Vanessa Redgrave, every other actress in every other film in 2007.

Best Actor:

The last few years, the acting races were decided before the gun was even fired at the starting line. Luckily for us, the all too bored and impatient film lovers, this year is far from the same. I like Reservation Road and its overdue talent again, but there’s so much competition, there’s no telling. Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises looks like an absolute show stealer.

Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix
Runner Up: Viggo Mortensen

Others: Daniel Day Lewis, Johnny Depp, Don Cheadle.

Best Supporting Actress:

“Mira Sorvino won an Oscar when? For what?”

Prediction: Mira Sorvino
Runner Up: Helena Bonham Carter

Others: Glenn Close, Romola Garai, Claire Danes, Samantha Morton

Best Supporting Actor:

This one I feel is the least contested. RR for the win again.

Prediction: Mark Ruffalo
Runner Up: Geoffrey Rush

Others: Liv Schreiber, Clive Owen, Javier Bardem, Christian Bale.

Best Screenplay—Adapted:

The obvious bus just pulled into the station.

Prediction: Reservation Road
Runner Up: There Will Be Blood

Others: Evening, American Gangster, Sweeney Todd.

Best Screenplay—Original

A far more interesting race than its Adapted counterpart. As is usual, most of the powerhouse films of the year are adapted, and thus, this race is obviously less important, but more of an actual race by itself. Unless of course Lions For Lambs is tremendous.

Prediction: Lions For Lambs
Runner Up: The Golden Age

Others: Eastern Promises, Knocked Up (40 Year Old Virgin anyone?), Margot at the Wedding.

Although it’s perfectly natural to dismiss any predictions that take place before the big time films come out of the woodwork in fall, you may find it in your interest to entertain yourself by remembering this article when Reservation Road bombs and Cate Blanchett receives bad reviews.

Until next time!

P.S.- Lust, Caution for Best Foreign Film if it follows all rules and yes, Transformers for Visual Effects lock. There. I said it again.

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