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GOLDEN GLOBES 2007: A GOLDEN PRESS CONFERENCE?

Will Marion Cotillard's acclaimed work in "La Vie en Rose" benefit from the "foreign" factor at the Golden Globes?

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By Joey Magidson

Certainly, no Golden Globes ceremony has been more controversial than this year’s one. The very idea that the “ceremony” itself will be little more than an “announcement” is highly unusual, but in reality has no actual bearing on the winners. Someone who voted for a particular film or actor didn’t do so simply to see Tom Hanks or Johnny Depp onstage. The Globes this year will be the least visually stimulating ever, but just as important as ever (take that statement as you will).

On the acting front:

The supporting players:

Supporting actor is a race between Javier Bardem (for his chilling turn as a killer in No Country for Old Men) and Casey Affleck (for his role as the coward Robert Ford in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford). Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s wisecracking CIA agent in Charlie Wilson’s War stands as a potential alternate if Bardem and Affleck split the vote, while Tom Wilkinson’s mentally unstable “fixer” in Michael Clayton and John Travolta’s cross-dressing act in Hairspray seem like long shots at best. Look for Bardem to add another award to his collection here.

Supporting actress is a two horse race as well, this time between Bob Dylan and an unfit Boston mother (strange bedfellows to say the least). Cate Blanchett essays the memorable take on Dylan in I’m Not There, and has been a favorite since early on, while Amy Ryan has come up right behind her for her compelling role as a woman who we both feel for and come to hate in Gone Baby Gone. Tilda Swinton has a chance as a big time lawyer in Michael Clayton, as does Saoirse Ronan for her work as jealous child in Atonement. Julia Roberts on the other hand (as a high society woman in Charlie Wilson’s War), is just happy to be nominated. This is a tricky one to predict but I see Blanchett edging out Ryan here in a close one.

The lead races:

Actor in a drama is perhaps the most one sided race we have here this year. Daniel Day-Lewis is almost guaranteed to be crowned for his “oily” role in There Will Be Blood. Both George Clooney (as a “fixer in Michael Clayton) and Viggo Mortensen (as a Russian mobster in Eastern Promises) would have the best chance for an upset, while Denzel Washington’s gangster in the aptly titled American Gangster will fall victim to Daniel Day-Lewis. James MacAvoy looms as a an interesting wild card for his wronged character in Atonement, but I think the HFPA doesn’t love the film THAT much. There Will Be Blood here….everyone’s except Daniel Day-Lewis.

Actress in a drama gives Best Actor a run for its money when it comes to one-sidedness. Julie Christie is a virtual lock to be remembered here for her Alzheimer’s patient in Away From Her. Possibly standing in her way is either Keira Knightley’s dreamy character in Atonement (though again, I don’t think the film is going to be anointed in any big way) or Angelina Jolie’s strong work as murdered journalist Daniel Pearl’s wife in A Mighty Heart. Jodie Foster’s vigilante in The Brave One will not be able to avenge this loss, and Cate Blanchett will have to settle for a great shot in the supporting category despite her regal turn in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Julie Christie should easily walk away with the award here.

Actor in a Musical/Comedy is a closer race than the drama categories, but this one heavily favors a certain demon barber. Johnny Depp has the inside track for his murderous character in Sweeney Todd, but he is opposed ably by a few other gentlemen. Phillip Seymour Hoffman does great work as a bitter son in The Savages, but the work is probably too subtle. Ditto for Ryan Gosling’s fantastic portrayal of a social awkward man coming out of his shell in Lars and the Real Girl. Tom Hanks is Tom Hanks, but his southern politician in Charlie Wilson’s War will have to settle for the nomination but not the election. John C. Reilly was very funny as the title rocker in Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story but he’s up against too much here. Depp looks likely to win here, but keep an eye out for a potential upset by Gosling.

Actress in a Musical/Comedy is by far the most competitive race here. There’s no real frontrunner and any winner here would be very deserving of it. The least likely winners here seem to be Amy Adams' princess in Enchanted, Nikki Blonsky’s plus sized heroine in Hairspray, and Helena Bonham Carter’s devious pie maker in Sweeney Todd. A pregnant teen and Edith Piaf are left to go head to head. Ellen Page in Juno is amazing, but so is Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose. This is an incredibly difficult one to call, but I’d say that Juno’s popularity will give Page the slight edge over Cotillard, despite her foreign appeal.

Juno and her witty remarks will probably earn Diablo Cody the Golden Globe...

The Scripts:

Best Screenplay seems like a clash between Diablo Cody’s wonderful screenplay for Juno and the Coen Brother’s unflinching adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s No Country for Old Men. Ronald Harwood makes the heart smile with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Aaron Sorkin lets the one liners zing in Charlie Wilson’s War, and Christopher Hampton somehow manages to adapt Ian McEwan’s Atonement, but they will all fall prey to Cody and the Coens. They will not have to compete against each other at the Oscars, but here they do and Juno will edge No Country here for the award.

The Music:

Best Original Score features Clint Eastwood’s piano in Grace is Gone, Dario Marianelli’s work in Atonement, Howard Shore’s steady hand in Eastern Promises, Alberto Iglesias’s contribution to The Kite Runner, and the combination of Michael Brook, Kaki King, and Eddie Vedder bringing music to Into the Wild. Vedder and Co have a shot here, but I look for Mr. Eastwood to walk away with the prize for his elegant score to Grace is Gone.

Best Original Song has a frothy Disney song (“That’s How You Know” from Enchanted), a sentimental song (“Grace is Gone” in the film of the same name), a saucy Latin tune (“Despedida” from Love in the Time of Cholera), and a silly parody (“Walk Hard” in the movie of the same name), but all are likely to fall down in defeat to the song “Guaranteed” from Into the Wild. Eddie Vedder did some wonderful work with the film, and it will be rewarded here.

The Direction:

The Best Director race is a fun one. We have Tim Burton’s vision of Sweeney Todd, Ridley Scott’s crime epic in American Gangster, Joe Wright’s tracking shots in Atonement, Joel and Ethan Coen’s bloody No Country for Old Men, and Julian Schnabel’s one eyed The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Each nominee has a very different style and each is deserving, but I believe the category will reward the most unique vision here, and that favors Schnabel. The Coen’s could also take this, but Julian Schnabel is my pick.

The Flicks:

Animated Film: Ratatouille….need I say more? (Sorry to Jerry Seinfeld’s bees and the Simpson family)

The Foreign Film Race is spearheaded by the frontrunner The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. It has a bit of competition from 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days, as well as The Kite Runner and Lust, Caution. Persepolis would have had more of a shot in the animated race. This award looks like it is going to a certain bell and butterfly.

Best Comedy/Musical is a very unique race, in that it features mostly musicals for the first time in a while (Charlie Wilson and Juno have stylized dialogue to differing extents, but neither speak in song). Across the Universe and Charlie Wilson’s War are unlikely to win, and Hairspray’s popularity most likely won’t result in an upset here. The chief contenders are Juno and Sweeney Todd. Juno could win it based on its joyful and winning nature, while Sweeney Todd may emerge victorious due to its power and technical proficiency. Each has its merits, but I see the crowd-pleaser beating out the bloody musical in a nail biter.

Best Drama is by far the most crowded race, but the true contenders are limited. The Great Debaters, Eastern Promises, Michael Clayton, and American Gangster are quality films, but also fillers in this race. Atonement has a shot, but again, I don’t think the love is there in that big bad way. There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men. Both are uncompromising and brutal films. Both are masterpieces of their craft. Both are extremely deserving, but only one can win. In the end, the avalanche that is No Country for Old Men will continue to envelope the awards world and take home this award too.

Overall, we have a show well worth watching, even though it’s barely a show at all. I’ll definitely be tuned in to watch the press conference/news conference/announcement/whatever it is. Will you be?

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