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THE GOLDEN GLOBES: OUR FIRST LOOK

Rising star Paul Dano is poised for some recognition at the Golden Globes

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By Josh Kirschenbaum

The Golden Globes, undeniably one of the biggest precursors leading up to the Oscars, have very little prestige attached to them. They are given out by the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association), a group of about 80-90 journalists who may be the most star-struck people on the planet. The HFPA love to see famous couples walk down their red carpet and many of the nominees for the Globes are there by star power alone. They will always give the award to the frontrunner. If there’s no frontrunner, the award goes to the most famous. That said, I enjoy the Golden Globes. Their splitting of the categories allows for the funnier people to get onstage, resulting in much better acceptance speeches. Even when their star worship gets out of hand (i.e. the head of the HFPA going onstage and quoting Sunset Boulevard as a small tribute to Meryl Streep, Clint Eastwood, and Jack Nicholson; and not realizing the irony that he was quoting a movie about the devastating effects of the star-struck culture of Hollywood), the show’s always good for a laugh, and they occasionally get the winner right. Because of their effect on the Oscar race, it is important to try and predict whom the HFPA will nominate this year. Here’s my best guess for all categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Paul Dano, There Will be Blood
John Travolta, Hairspray

As the frontrunner, Javier Bardem is almost guaranteed a spot here. Giving the best performance of the year certainly doesn’t hurt either. HFPA voters love to award “international” things, which is how Babel won over The Departed last year. The fact that Bardem is from Spain should appeal to this aspect of the Globes. Though early reviews indicate Charlie Wilson’s War may not be best picture material, it certainly has the star power to get noticed by the HFPA. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is very popular right now and his role is getting good buzz right now. Again, the film has the “international” motif and will appeal to Globe voters. As far as Tom Wilkinson goes: A very showy role for a very respected actor in a raved film with George Clooney? There’s no way the Globes are going to ignore him. Paul Dano is a rising star and the Globes love rising stars. The two things going against him are the possibility of being overshadowed by costar Daniel Day-Lewis and the fact that the film is said to be very unconventional and may not appeal to voters. That said, if the role is good, and the movie is good, he should have no problem getting nominated. The Globes usually nominate a popular actor in an entertaining role who doesn’t deserve the nomination and has little chance to make it to the Oscars (Will Ferrell in The Producers, David Carradine in Kill Bill Vol. 2). Travolta seems like the best candidate for this spot.

Other contenders: Hal Holbrook is getting a lot of buzz for his role in Into the Wild, but the Globes rarely nominated people who aren’t really famous. Likewise for Phillip Bosco in The Savages. Max von Sydow has a good chance for his role in The Diving Bell And The Butterfly. However, right now the film is a huge question mark and no one is sure how much his role stands out. Ethan Hawke has enough star power to be noticed for his role in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead but is seriously overshadowed by costars Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Albert Finney. Finney has a great chance but has very limited screen time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson’s War
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Blanchett is the frontrunner right now and has the star power and rave reviews to justify it. There’s almost no way the HFPA won’t nominate Julia Roberts if they have a chance to, and I already mentioned how Charlie Wilson’s War will likely appeal to Globe voters. Tilda Swinton is in the same position as Tom Wilkinson. Atonement is the film to beat this year and will certainly be seen by Globe voters. Saoirse Ronan has great buzz as of now and as I already mentioned, the Globes love rising stars. Marisa Tomei gives a good performance in a film that is only getting more buzz as the year progresses. I have a feeling the HFPA will want to see her on the red carpet again. I have a feeling that if she wins, all the speeches after her will make jokes about her Oscar win for My Cousin Vinny, and who doesn’t want to see that?

Other Contenders: Amy Ryan is too much of an unknown to compete with the other contenders. Romola Garai doesn’t have the early raves that indicate her role will be noticed. Ruby Dee is lacking screen time for her role in American Gangster. Leslie Mann in Knocked Up has a lot of support online but I doubt that voters will take the film seriously enough. Jennifer Jason Leigh doesn’t have any chance and right now it looks like we can count Margot at the Wedding out of the race completely.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Johnny Depp, Sweeny Todd
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Seth Rogen, Knocked Up

It would take an act of god to stop Depp from winning this. There is no contender in this category with more star power, more buzz, or a showier role. Positive reviews and a weak category should get Gosling nominated. Rogen will probably make it because the HFPA will want to honor the most popular comedy of the year. I actually cannot think of another lead actor in a musical or comedy with a greater chance of being nominated than any other person. Some other contenders include: Glen Hansard in Once, Jonah Hill or Michael Cera in Superbad, Patrick Dempsey or James Marsden in Enchanted, or John C. Reilly in Walk Hard: the Dewey Cox Story.

Amy Adams is a top contender in the Musical or Comedy category

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Ellen Page, Juno
Keri Russell, Waitress

Cotillard will probably be campaigned here, following the precedent left by Ray and Walk the Line. She has the best reviews of any actress this year and will definitely be nominated. Amy Adams gave a breakthrough performance in Enchanted. The film’s popularity and the quality of her performance is enough to get her nominated. The HFPA will likely latch on to Sweeney Todd and Carter should be a part of that. Page getting great early notices, is a rising star, and is in a movie that will likely be very popular. Waitress is slowly gaining a following since being released on DVD and that might be enough to get Russell a nomination.

Other Contenders: Nikki Blonsky in Hairspray will have trouble being nominated with a lack of star power and not being able to stand out in a film with John Travolta in a fat suit. Katherine Heigl for Knocked Up won’t be able to compete in such a competitive category. As previously stated, Margot at the Wedding is dead.

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
James McAvoy, Atonement
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

Day-Lewis is the frontrunner and is probably the most respected actor in Hollywood. Everybody love George Clooney and the HFPA will want him at their ceremony. Likewise for Denzel and Tom Hanks. James McAvoy is a rising star (I’m getting sick of using this term) and has a role in the frontrunner for the year.

Other Contenders: Emile Hirsch doesn’t have a strong enough role in Into the Wild to make it here. Phillip Seymour Hoffman will have trouble competing with other high-profile roles and actors. The HFPA might decide that since he’ll be there anyway for his Charlie Wilson’s War role that there is no reason to acknowledge his excellent work in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. John Cusack has some buzz for in role in Grace is Gone but at this point it’s not enough to get him nominated.

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

Laura Linney, The Savages
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Jodie Foster, The Brave One

Laura Linney is getting great notices for her work in The Savages. She is one of the most talented actresses working today and a lot of people believe she is due for a win. Julie Christie was magnificent in Away From Her and the HFPA will love to have a veteran star at the ceremony. Angelina Jolie will be nominated because she’s super famous and will bring Brad Pitt along with her. Knightley has a role in Atonement and at this point that’s enough for her to be nominated. Foster got some great reviews and is famous enough to fill out the category.

BEST DIRECTOR

Joe Wright, Atonement
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows you’re Dead

Joe Wright is apart of the Atonement juggernaut and that alone will ensure him a spot here. Burton and the Coens are cult directors who are doing some of their best work this year. Scott and Lumet are veterans and the HFPA will love to have them at the ceremony.

Other Contenders: Jason Reitman isn’t famous enough to compete with other contenders and his work in Juno will probably be overlooked here. Mike Nichols is a veteran but as of now his film, Charlie Wilson’s War, is losing steam after a devastating round of early reviews. Don’t count him out though. Sean Penn definitely has the star power but Into the Wild is low on buzz right now. Don’t count him out either.

BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Sweeney Todd
Juno
Enchanted
Once
Hairspray

Sweeney Todd should be popular with the HFPA due to it’s star power and prestige. Being the only “serious” contender in this category helps the film immensely. The early raves for Juno indicate it will be very good and that is enough to get it nominated in this category. Enchanted is very popular, as are Hairspray and Once. Though Once is popular in a slightly different way than the other two

Other Contenders: Knocked Up is popular but not as much as any of the above films. It also may have trouble being taken seriously. Lars and the Real Girl doesn’t have the reviews to overcome any of the other contenders. Across the Universe, The Darjeeling Limited, and Margot at the Wedding are all dead in this race.

BEST PICTURE – DRAMA

Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Before the Devil Knows
American Gangster
Michael Clayton

Atonement is the frontrunner and at this point looks like a lock for a nomination. No Country for Old Men has the best reviews of any movie this year (except Ratatouille, which won’t be competing in this category). It’s very popular (#31 on the IMDB top 250 films of all time) and will give the HFPA a chance to make up for their awarding Evita over Fargo back in 1996. Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead is a huge comeback for Lumet and has enough stars and buzz to make it here. American Gangster has the best box office of any film. Michael Clayton will make it on Clooney’s popularity alone.

Other Contenders: The Kite Runner will be relegated to the foreign language category like last year’s Letters from Iwo Jima. Into the Wild has a great chance to be nominated and I wouldn’t count it out. There Will be Blood will probably be too unconventional. As I already mentioned Charlie Wilson’s War doesn’t look like it has the quality to back up the buzz.

What are your current Golden Globe Awards predictions?

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