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GOLDEN GLOBES 2007: PREDICTED WINNERS!

Will the mostly-european HFPA honor Atonement over No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood?

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By Myles Hughes

And a happy new year to all you movie-lovers! As I write, we are in the next chapter of awards season. For the last year or so we have been guessing and speculating as to merely what might be nominated. The precursors have been rolling in on a regular basis, and tomorrow, the loudest precursor of all will distribute their winners. We’re no longer predicting the nominees: we’re now predicting who will take home the gold.

It is important to note that there are some notable differences in how one must go about predicting the Golden Globes recipients. Ballots for Academy voters are due on the day before the Globes are handed out, so we can no longer suggest that a GG winner would have any bearing on the Oscar race outside of perhaps influencing a film that will have already received a nomination, as well as perhaps using the track record between the two ceremonies to guess who will and won’t translate to both awards.

Speaking of ceremonies, as many of you know there won’t be a Golden Globes Award gala as in previous years due to the Writer’s Guild strike (if you’ve been under a rock for the past few months, that’s why there are more reruns on TV than usual). There will merely be a press conference to announce the winner interspersed with clips. So while a week from now, it will be a rhetorical question when I ask if you enjoyed watching the show, that doesn’t mean that the awards themselves have any less meaning. They’re essentially the same star-studded event/awards show, minus the star-studded event part.

Below is my final analysis of the nominees in the film categories, and my top 3 for each. Please note that my first choice is my predicted winner, and the second and third are my alternate choices, in respective order.

BEST PICTURE – DRAMA

"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"Eastern Promises"
"The Great Debaters"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country For Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Much has been made about how absolutely wimpy it is for the HFPA to nominate seven pictures in this category instead of settling on the usual five. To be fair, there were far more exceptional movies released this year than can possibly be rewarded. For the past few years, this category has had a habit of rewarding the apparent frontrunner for Best Picture, just to have AMPAS reward a left field choice (most notably in the cases of “Brokeback Mountain” and “The Aviator”). However, the Globes are not internationally shy, and often like films with less American themes, if the star power is right. That’s why I’m going to go for the season’s original frontrunner, “Atonement”, as the winner of this category. It’s that sort of timeless romance that they could easily eat right up, and that many thought Oscar should but now won’t. I suspect the film will be victorious here and at the BAFTAs, while the Academy goes in a different direction (my chips are currently on “No Country For Old Men”). Not to mention that “Atonement” has the most GG nominations, which should never be taken for granted. Of course, they could always just go the tried and true route by rewarding “No Country” here (the Globes are occasionally but not remarkably original when it comes to winners, and may just follow the trend). “Eastern Promises” would be a wild card indeed, but probably shouldn’t be taken seriously for the win. Same for “The Great Debaters”, which I don’t expect to make any real impact at the Academy either. “Michael Clayton” wouldn’t be out of the question, but it doesn’t quite have the strength of the films that more people saw. “There Will Be Blood”, with only two nominations, will likely only partake in Best Actor. “American Gangster” probably has a shot, simply for the epic star power, and the big money behind it.

Atonement - Winner
No Country For Old Men - Alternate
American Gangster – Alternate

BEST PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

"Across the Universe"
"Charlie Wilson's War"
"Hairspray"
"Juno"
"Sweeney Todd"

Though this category had the decency to keep to an appropriate number of nominees, there’s little doubt that this race is really between the only two contenders with any Oscar buzz left: “Juno” and “Sweeney Todd”. The former has maintained consistently strong buzz through the season, has great B.O. numbers and is considered by many pundits to be a strong contender for a full-on Best Picture nomination (I remain unconvinced, but that’s neither here nor there). Detractors have pointed that the movie may not have the universal appeal of, say, a “Little Miss Sunshine”, and it may simply not be big enough to compete. As for the latter film, reviews are great, it has a built-in fan base (between the Sondheim crowd and the Burton/Depp crowd), and it has strong if not overwhelming B.O. On the other hand, debates still go on about the singing quality, and the film may very simply be too elaborately bloody to appeal to voters. I’m going to side with “Juno”, since it has been having the most success thus far at the precursors (last week’s BFCAs come to mind). “Hairspray” may still have some fans left over, but it wasn’t as well liked upon its release as “Juno” or “Sweeney” are now. “Across The Universe” was too polarizing to win any significant votes, and “Charlie Wilson’s War” has a unanimous “good, not great” reaction to it that won’t likely be able to compete with the primary contenders.

Juno
Sweeney Todd
Hairspray

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
James MacAvoy, "Atonement"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Denzel Washington, "American Gangster"

I hate to sound like a broken record on this race, but can we not all concede that this is Daniel Day-Lewis’s race to lose? As great as all the other performances this year, his stood out with a towering intensity revered by all who saw him. The only reason he’s not guaranteed a statuette at the Globes in particular is because George Clooney is in the race, arguably giving the best performance of his career. Clooney has an extravagant star power that a method actor like Day-Lewis can’t replicate (nor I suspect would he want to). It’ll be neck-and-neck between the two for the prize, but I predict Day-Lewis as coming just ahead based on his excellent buzz. Washington has a similar star power to Clooney, but “American Gangster” doesn’t quite have the respect of “Michael Clayton”, which may or may not mean anything. MacAvoy could conceivably ride the “Atonement” wave if there is one, but I doubt it. Mortensen’s achievement will likely remain the nomination itself, and otherwise he’s just along for the ride.

Daniel Day-Lewis
George Clooney
James MacAvoy

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Jodie Foster, "The Brave One"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Keira Knightley, "Atonement"

It’s industry respect vs. star power in this race, and Julie Christie is currently leading the pack as the nominee with the greatest probability of translating to Oscar. Jolie regained a fair amount of respect for her little-seen turn, and her star power should certainly not be underestimated. Knightley has celebrity quality to spare, in addition to starring in the biggest contender at the show. Like MacAvoy, she could possibly ride a wave, but she doesn’t have the support of most of her competition. Blanchett’s well-received performance in a poorly-received film will likely go unnoticed (at least in this category). Foster has plenty of clout, but not quite enough to overcome mixed review for “The Brave One”.

Julie Christie
Angelina Jolie
Keira Knightley

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd"
Tom Hanks, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Savages"
John C. Reilly, "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story"

There isn’t much to say about this race, except that if Johnny Depp doesn’t finally receive a Golden Globe it will be an almost inexcusable snub. The actor has zero wins and several past nominations, and his competition in this category is middling indeed. If I had to choose an alternate, I’d go with Ryan Gosling, if only because he’s the only other nominee with a decent shot at breaking in at the Oscars (Hoffman will likely show up for Supporting Actor, not leading). Tom Hanks may just have the likable celebrity vote, but he’s not a realistic choice. Reilly doesn’t stand a vague chance.

Johnny Depp
Ryan Gosling
Tom Hanks

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Amy Adams, "Enchanted"
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Helena Bonham Carter, "Sweeney Todd"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

So why exactly isn’t Laura Linney on this list? I suppose that’s a question that has little relevance at this point. Marion Cotillard is a frontrunner, both here and at the Oscars, and many consider her a shoe-in to win at the latter. Her stiff competition lies in the young Ellen Page, who has a very good chance on riding along with her respected movie and newcomer status. Right now I give her the edge, but still fully expect both actresses to make it to the big show. Blonsky has another newcomer card to play, but it’s not nearly as strong as Page’s. Adams has plenty of love for her role, but the substance isn’t likely to be able to compete. Bonham Carter has an outside shot if “Sweeney Todd” has an exceptional amount of support, which may overcome her somewhat mixed reviews (specifically for singing).

Ellen Page
Marion Cotillard
Helena Bonham Carter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck, "Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
John Travolta, "Hairspray"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

With the exception of John Travolta, who will likely be replaced by Hal Holbrook for “Into The Wild”, these nominees will almost undoubtedly translate to the Oscar category. Javier Bardem has been the frontrunner all season without losing any noticeable ground, and I would expect him to end his winning streak with victory come February. However, I think if any significant precursor is going to sidestep him, it will be this one. Call me inspired, but I expect the Globe winner to be Bardem’s runner-up for much of the season: Casey Affleck. He is a breakthrough star, and he has the advantage of playing the lead in a supporting role. The Globes are often kind to newcomers, and even though he’s been around for a while in smaller roles, this has been his definitive year, and I expect he just might pull it off. Having said that, Bardem is still front and center for the Oscar, and the Globes may just follow the trend after all. As for Wilkinson and Hoffman, they both turned in excellent work, the kind that gets honored but not rewarded. Both are lacking in precursors, and I would be surprised if they hit a peak here. Travolta may get it just based on love for “Hairspray”, but don’t expect him to overcome the Richard Gere effect (winning the GG, not even getting an Oscar nomination).

Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
John Travolta

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Julia Roberts, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Remember back when we all thought Cate Blanchett had this award in the bag, and nobody was even considering Amy Ryan until about a week before “Gone Baby Gone” was released? Well, suffice to say, times have changed, and Ryan has been literally sweeping the precursors, while Blanchett has had to settle for bridesmaid status. All evidence to the contrary, I have a suspicion that “I’m Not There” will have a stronger reception among the HFPA, and that Blanchett will edge out her competition in the end (the fact that she’s nominated twice might be an omen, might not). Ryan, of course, is on a hot streak, and could just as easily pick it up. Roberts is here based on star power and apparent love for her film, but don’t expect her to win. Ronan will likely get votes of sympathy based on “Atonement”, her age, and her nationality, and could take it away in a surprise move. Swinton, like her co-star Wilkinson, is just enjoying the show and tagging along.

Cate Blanchett
Saoirse Ronan
Amy Ryan

BEST DIRECTOR

Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Julian Schnabel, "Diving Bell & the Butterfly"
Ridley Scott, "American Gangster"
Joe Wright, "Atonement"

The Coen Brothers have been cleaning up virtually since the first shot was fired, and considering that their major competition in most events is P.T. Anderson or Sean Penn, neither of which are represented here, they shouldn’t face major competition here. Tim Burton is the only director here with a film from the Comedy/Musical category. Could that mean something for him? Probably not. Unless “American Gangster” is a bigger hit with the HFPA than expected, Scott is out as well. If “Atonement” is fortunate enough to sweep the ceremony, then Wright could easily get caught up in it. And of course, Schnabel gets embraceable ethnicity points, and the fact that a foreign film is represented both here and in best screenplay bodes well for “The Diving Bell”.

Joel & Ethan Coen
Julian Schnabel
Joe Wright

BEST SCREENPLAY

Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Christopher Hampton, "Atonement"
Ronald Harwood, "The Diving Bell & the Butterfly"
Aaron Sorkin, "Charlie Wilson's War"

As one might expect, the screenplay categories are more accessible when they’re split into Original and Adapted categories. Most years they have clear frontrunners, and this year they would have to be “Juno” and “No Country”, respectively. Since “Juno” has been performing the strongest in other precursors also combining the categories, and since in general it may prove more accessible to the Globes. “Atonement” will probably only win if it gets Picture or Director as well. “Diving Bell” has support, but it’s not the biggest name film and may miss the cut. My hunch is that if neither “Juno” or “No Country” gets it, then the award will go to “Charlie Wilson’s War”, as a condolence for receiving the second highest number of nominations but remaining unlikely to win in most other categories.

Juno
No Country For Old Men
Charlie Wilson’s War

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days (Romania)
"The Diving Bell & the Butterfly" (France/USA)
"The Kite Runner" (USA)
"Lust, "Caution" (Taiwan)
"Persepolis" (France)

As you may have noticed from the inclusion of American-made film “The Kite Runner”, the standards for Best Foreign Film are somewhat more lax at the Globes than at the Academy. The film itself has far too much of a mixed reception, though there could certainly be sympathy for it. I give the biggest edge to “The Diving Bell” seeing as it is the only film here represented in other categories, as well as considered by some to be more than applicable for a flat-out Best Picture nomination. “Persepolis”, being almost unanimously loved and a serious threat to Best Animated Feature, may sneak in as well. “Lust, Caution” has had a mixed bag of opinions, which won’t likely translate to a win. “4 Months”, a likely winner at the Oscars where neither “Persepolis” nor “Diving Bell” will be applicable, could have an outside shot at staking out territory here as well.

The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
Persepolis
4 Months, 3 Weeks, & 2 Days

BEST ANIMATED FILM

"Bee Movie"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Let’s see: no “Beowulf”, “Persepolis” is in the foreign race, and “Bee Movie” has little to no support and only decent B.O. going for it (though nowhere near as good as the other two films here). “Ratatouille” is the obvious choice to take the prize, and though “Simpsons” may yet have enough sympathy (both from the show and for the classic art form), it won’t be enough to conquer Pixar’s latest.

Ratatouille

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dario Marianelli, "Atonement"
Howard Shore, "Eastern Promises"
Clint Eastwood, "Grace is Gone"
Michael Brook, "Into the Wild"
Alberto Iglesias, "The Kite Runner"

In this race, it’s all about the kind of music the Globes have a history of warming up to. Looking back at past winners, we have “The Painted Veil”, “Memoirs of a Geisha”, “The Aviator”, “Lord of the Rings”, and “Frida” for the last five years. Judging from this track record, I’d put my money on “Atonement”, which represents the kind of epic-romantic-foreign style the Globes have enjoyed in the past, not to mention that it has been well represented at other precursors. “The Kite Runner” follows a similar trend, and has a decent shot. “Grace Is Gone” didn’t appear to appeal to a very large audience, and Clint Eastwood’s star power won’t likely translate in this circumstance. “Into The Wild” was better remembered for its songs than score, and is very unlikely. Of course, the last several years show that HFPA love Howard Shore, so “Eastern Promises” is certainly legit.

Atonement
The Kite Runner
Eastern Promises

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Despedida" from "Love in the Time of Cholera"
"Grace Is Gone" from "Grace Is Gone"
"Guaranteed" from "Into the Wild"
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted"
"Walk Hard" from "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story"

Ignoring the obvious fallacy that “Once” didn’t make this list, the choices are somewhat eclectic in taste. “Into The Wild” would be the natural first choice (it’s the only film here that has a serious likelihood of Oscar contention outside of music), but the fact that the film itself was so notably snubbed in other categories may bode ill for its reception. I’ll still predict victory for it however, since the competition rather pales by comparison. “Cholera” and “Grace Is Gone” don’t have enough support from any sector. “Enchanted” was a well received family film, and a win here would be surprising, but not overtly so. “Walk Hard” was a catchy tune in a film with a surprisingly warm critical reception, if dwindling box office.

Into The Wild
Walk Hard
Enchanted

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