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GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS: WHAT FILMS WERE AFFECTED?

Charlie Wilson's War leads the Comedy/Musical race

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By Myles Hughes

This morning, after months and months of speculation, the first big step on the road to the Oscars was taken. The nominations for the Golden Globes, usually ranked as one of the most significant precursors to the Academy Awards, were made public and can be found at just about any conceivable web site dealing with film (not to mention our own). While the nominees and winners don’t always match up, they are often close enough to be able to make educated guesses from.

Below is a list of the Top 10 films that were helped by these nominations, as well as the Top 5 whose absence or overall lack of nominations may have hurt it in the long run:

TOP 10 GAINERS

CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Just when we were ready to dismiss it on the grounds of disappointing early reviews, the film buoys itself up with five nominations (for Picture, Screenplay, and the three stars). Though this may speak more to the film’s star appeal than to its quality, the significant nominations should at least keep it alive a little longer.

ATONEMENT – Just when it looked like the buzz was starting to fade on this one, it breaks out to lead the pack with seven nominations. Coverage in almost all of the major categories will undoubtedly result in at least one or two wins, which can only help the Oscar potential. Perhaps one of the biggest impacts was the apparent decision of Saoirse Ronan as the Briony to be nominated. Although Redgrave or Garai could still break out, Ronan is now looking like the one to beat.

THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY – Though the Globes don’t discern as strictly when it comes to foreign films (e.g. The Kite Runner), the Academy only allows one film per country. The fact that this film’s quality can pull it to the forefront of many regular Best Picture lists bodes well indeed, and the fact that it received just about every nomination it needed to hope for here will give it an even bigger push.

SWEENEY TODD – The early reviews were great. The early precursors were weak. Now the movie is back at the forefront, with four nominations in key areas. It’s a well-known secret that the Musical/Comedy race is between this film and Juno: expect the victor to move on to the Oscars. Meanwhile, loss of a Screenplay nod isn’t incredibly surprising or detrimental, and the film looks on course to appear at this year’s Oscar ceremony.

AMERICAN GANGSTER – Now this is a film that desperately needed a boost. With waning buzz since its less-than-stellar opening reception, nominations in three of the biggest categories are sure to push it a little further. On the other hand, the Globes nominated no less than 7 films for Best Picture – Drama this year. It needs to win in at least one of the categories (preferably Picture or Director) to remain in the race.

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – To be fair, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that this film will be nominated. All the same, the noteworthy nods for Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor have pushed it that much closer to being the significant frontrunner of the year’s race. Such frontrunner status may end up getting it that far and then not winning, but such worries are irrelevant for now: this is currently the movie to beat in most categories.

EASTERN PROMISES – Perhaps this film isn’t as forgotten as some people think. Though it remains a long shot for a Best Picture nomination, the biggest factor is Mortensen’s Best Actor nomination. He has been figuring consistently into most of the precursors, and though he is trailing behind Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney, his mentions there and here are likely to keep him in contention long enough to earn a nomination at the Oscars. Best Original Score isn’t such a long shot either.

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Early word hails the film as a flawed masterpiece, which sounds like just the kind of thing that the Academy might nominate but would certainly not reward. It has made a small killing at the early precursors, and its’ Globes presence in the Picture and Actor categories will likely fuel it through the season. Notable omissions such as Dano for Supporting Actor and Anderson for Best Director and Screenplay may have an impact on final nominations.

MICHAEL CLAYTON – The almost universally respected adult thriller made a strong showing this morning, with nods for Picture and the three anticipated stars. A lack of a Screenplay nod is a bit noticeable, but as there’s only one category for it at the Globes and two for the Oscars, I wouldn’t think too much of it. Best Picture prospects are still uncertain, but George Clooney has been cleaning up at the precursors, and another win over Day-Lewis here would translate into a virtual lock for a nomination.

JUNO – This year’s Little Miss Sunshine, as many are calling it, is sure to benefit from nominations for Picture (where it will duel with Sweeney Todd to advance to Oscar’s hit list), Actress and Screenplay (where it will very likely make a mark, as it has already been doing for a good handful of precursors). On the other hand, the Oscars did nominate Little Miss Sunshine last year, and may feel, given the choice, that a change of pace is in order, considering that a musical hasn’t been nominated for Best Picture since Chicago.

TOP 5 CASUALTIES

INTO THE WILD – Besides nods for the music, this indie was completely ignored, which could translate into a lack of attention at the Oscars as well. Hal Holbrook is still a strong Supporting Actor contender, as I don’t really expect John Travolta to go the distance.

BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD – Zero mention whatsoever. If American Gangster fails to continue down the road to the Oscars, Sidney Lumet could still sneak in.

ONCE – I’m not sure how this film missed out on a Best Original Song nomination, but perhaps it just wasn’t big enough for the Globes to remember. A few precursor wins should keep it in mind for the Academy.

THE SAVAGES – Hoffman managed to sneak into Best Actor, but he’ll have no such luck at the Academy. Was it overlooked, or just not considered good enough to compete?

THE GREAT DEBATERS – True, it got a Best Picture nomination. But a complete lack of mention in any other category makes it feel like the wild card nomination that the Globes often throw into the mix (e.g. last year’s Bobby). Such films almost never get nominated, and with so little early word, the film’s buzz may finally come too little too late.

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