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IT'S ALL GREEK TO ME: WILD SPECULATION ABOUT THE FOREIGN LANGUAGE CATEGORY

French contender "Persepolis" is among the best of this year's world cinema

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By Tom Houseman

Excluding the short films, there is no category at the Oscars that is more difficult to comprehend, let alone predict, than Best Foreign Language Film. The selection process alone is absurdly complicated, with each country submitting one film, then a series of boards narrowing the contenders (this year a record-breaking 63) eventually down to the five nominees. Also, because there is so little discussion of the category and the films receive so little attention, that it is difficult to know in advance what films will be well received. In addition, films that would seem like obvious Oscar bait often get overlooked by their national academies; last year Pedro Almodovar’s Volver and the WWII epic Black Book both missed out on nominations.

The biggest kink already thrown into this year’s race is that Ang Lee’s Lust, Caution, the early front runner, did not qualify, leaving this category even more wide open than it could be. So with very little information to go on, who is willing to step forward and throw out essentially random guesses about what films could potentially be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film? I suppose I’m the man for the job, so here are the category's ten top contenders:

Canada- Days of Darkness: In its history, Canada has been nominated four times in this category, winning the award once. The man responsible for 75% of those nominations, and that win, is Denys Arcand. Days of Darkness, Arcand’s latest, is the only safe bet in this category. Days of Darkness is about a civil servant who escapes his bleak reality with elaborate fantasies. Doesn’t sound like the Academy’s cup of tea, but Arcand has important name recognition, which gives this film a leg up in the category.

France- Persepolis: This film has all the makings of the perfect Foreign Oscar nominee. France has a remarkable track record, with thirty-three nominations; the film is based on highly respected work of literature, and has won awards at several international film festivals. So what’s the problem? No animated film has ever been nominated for Best Foreign Film. It’s a risky move on behalf of the French nominating committee, and I have a feeling it will pay off with a nomination, and maybe even a win.

Germany- The Edge of Heaven: After Canada and France, it’s pretty much guesswork as to what films will make an impact, so why not start with the country that won the award last year? Fatih Akin’s film won the screenplay award at the Cannes film festival for his intertwining stories that deals with political issues like immigration, as well as intense family drama. This is a film that could very easily strike a chord with the nominating committee.

Iran- M for Mother: It sounds a little bit like a Lifetime movie, but it could be seen as an important film that deserves recognition. It’s the story of a married couple who find out that their child will be born with birth defects due to the mother’s exposure to chemical weapons. It could get some attention because it is director Rasool Mollagholi Poor’s last film, as he died in March. Call it a hunch, because that’s what it is, but this film could turn some heads.

Ireland- Kings: English speaking countries rarely show up in this category, because they make very few non-English language films, but Tom Collins’ film, based on a Gaelic play by Jimmy Murphy, could lead to Ireland’s first nomination. The film follows a group of friends who reunite for a friend’s funeral, and will be personal, heartfelt drama that could be a big hit. It will definitely get noticed, and could lead to Ireland’s first nomination in this category.

Japan- I Just Didn’t Do It: This film has already gotten some attention simply because it is very different from Japan’s usual submissions. The film is a courtroom drama, and a commentary on the flawed Japanese court system that makes it almost impossible for accused criminals to defend themselves successfully. It is a drama with a message, a great recipe for Oscar attention.

Mexico- Silent Light: Considering this film’s religious bent, it might not be the perfect fit for this category but it has gotten such good press that it has to be considered. The film is about a religious family living on a remote farm, but the father’s faith is tested when he falls in love with another woman. It won the Jury Prize at Cannes along with Persepolis, and is directed by respected and controversial director Carlos Reygadas. On a side note, if this film had been made two years ago, it would not have been eligible for the Oscar, as it is not in Spanish, but rather an obscure German dialect.

Poland- Katyn: The Academy loves films about historical tragedies, and Katyn is taking on a shockingly overlooked subject, the massacre of over 15,000 Polish citizens by Soviet authorities. The film follows the women in the lives of some of the Polish officers killed in the massacre, and includes reenactments of the events. Directed by Andrzej Wajda, whose 1981 film Man of Iron was the last Polish film nominated in this category, this film is an obvious choice for a nomination.

Romania- 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days: There’s not much better press a foreign film can get than to win the Palm D’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and this year’s winner would like to translate that success into an Oscar nomination. The film tells the story about a woman in 1980s Poland who helps her friend perform an illegal abortion, and reviews have been glowing about this intense drama, which bears some similarity’s to Oscar success Vera Drake. This could be Romania’s first nomination in this category.

Spain- The Orphanage: This is easily the most commercial submission, as it is a horror movie produced by Guillermo del Toro, but there is a lot of buzz around it, which is a great way to distinguish a film from the other submissions and get a nomination. The film is about a woman who starts an orphanage in her childhood home but things get very strange when her son makes an invisible friend. Word is that it’s incredibly scary; will the nominating committee buy it as an Oscar film? It’s hard to say.

With as little knowledge as we have right now, this is all guesswork, and it’s possible that none of these films will get nominated, and we will instead see a category with such film as Kazakhstan’s Genghis Kahn biopic Mongol, Austria’s Nazi drama Counterfeiters, Brazil’s coming of age tale The Year My Parent’s Went on Vacation, Norway’s romantic-comedy Gone with the Woman, and the film with the most entertaining title of the year: Uruguay’s The Pope’s Toilet.

But, if someone put a gun to my head and told me to predict what five films were to be nominated for the Foreign Language Oscar, these would be my current predictions:

4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Days of Darkness
Katyn
The Orphanage
Persepolis

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