Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

THE FINAL PUSH: DECEMBER'S OSCAR FILMS

There Will Be Blood is among the most anticipated films of December

FEATURES

By Joey Magidson

The final month for films to come out for awards consideration is fast approaching, and by the beginning of 2008 we will have a better idea of what the race will be like in the home stretch. There are about a half dozen “big” films left for us to see and each of them has a legitimate shot to become “the” film of the year.

Atonement:

This is probably the most traditional contender of the bunch. It’s a sprawling film with beautiful images and a good following from its origins as a novel. It has a good pedigree, coming from Joe Wright of Pride and Prejudice fame. This film has been the “frontrunner” as of late and nothing short of bad reviews is going to change that, and with the great word of mouth so far, that appears somewhat unlikely to happen. The Academy seems more likely to embrace this one than most other flicks this season, so this could very much end up the film that is draped in gold come Oscar time.

Charlie Wilson’s War:

If not for Atonement, this is the movie that would be the unquestioned frontrunner now. This film has suffered a bit from the Dreamgirls effect of being in the lead sight unseen for so long. Until we actually see the film, the only thing we can go on is the script by Aaron Sorkin (which I read and review previously here, it’s a fantastic script by the way) and the stature of the talent involved. Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman are under the direction of Mike Nichols, which is as solid a foundation as you can get. If audiences respond to this tale of covert warfare and fun loving congressmen, then this film will likely be a MAJOR player at awards time.

Juno:

By far the lightest contender of the bunch content-wise, this audience favorite from the festival circuit is poised to be the Little Miss Sunshine of this year. Going in this films favor is the performance of Ellen Page, which is probably the most buzzed about female lead performance yet (she’s being championed by Roger Ebert, and that is nothing to sneeze at), the energy of Diablo Cody’s script and the previously mentioned buzz. The Golden Globes and the precursors will go a long way towards knowing if this teenage pregnancy comedy is a true Oscar contender or just another feel good comedy that resonates with audiences but not the Academy.

Sweeny Todd:

The only musical in the race (besides the fringe contenders Once and Hairspray) is one based on a much loved play and is being seen through the warped gaze of Tim Burton. This flick has all the ingredients to be either a big hit or a big flop, and a lot will ride on whether or not audiences buy Johnny Depp and his singing talents. If he’s up to the challenge, this may be a huge threat to Atonement and Charlie Wilson’s War, but if he brings the film to a halt every time he breaks into song, the movie will be in trouble. It’s a safe bet for tech nominations, but the film will have to be a hit and feature strong musical acting to get the traction it needs in the race.

The Kite Runner:

Another film based on a beloved book, this film will need to catch on with people not familiar with the book in order to do something in the race. Marc Forster is a solid director, but the film has no big names in its cast and a troubled history of late, so strong word of mouth is a huge factor for this movie. If all goes well, this film could catch on, and audiences will find out why so many people love the book. At this moment, this film is one of the most confusing to predict in this race.

There Will Be Blood:

Anything that gets compared to Citizen Kane must be a serious award contender, right? It seems that way for P.T. Anderson’s latest film about oil and greed. This movie is being hailed as a masterwork by some and buzz for Daniel Day Lewis in the lead role is at a boiling point. It’s only real detractor will be its limited box office potential and perhaps the negative reactions that some people will have after spending 3 hours with a despicable character. Smart money places this film up in the area that Atonement and Charlie Wilson occupy, but it’s is no sure bet.

If I had to guess right now, I’d say that at least 2 of these films will end up with Best Picture nominations, but I’d probably place the cap at 4 due mostly to the huge buzz for No Country for Old Men, and films like American Gangster and Into the Wild. Getting more specific, I’d go out on a limb and say that Atonement, Charlie Wilson’s War, and There Will Be Blood are the likely nominees but until the films are all out, we can only speculate (and speculate we shall!).

What's your most anticipated December release?

Discuss it in our Blog!

Comments?
 

COMMUNITY

REVIEWS