Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

FINAL ANALYSIS: THE ACTRESSES

Julie Christie is poised to win her second Oscar for her subtle work in Away from Her

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By Joey Magidson

The Best Actress race this year is one that, while not completely closed, certainly has a solid frontrunner. Julie Christie’s tremendous turn in Away from Her has her on the right path to a big win at the Oscars. She has the precursors in her favor, in addition to being able to keep momentum throughout the season and making sure that voters didn’t forget about her. She has 4 fierce rivals in this category and each would certainly make the case that they can be the one to dethrone her.

Marion Cotillard could be the second actress ever to score a Best Actress Oscar for a foreign language performance (in 1960, Sophia Loren was the first) for her take on Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose. Critics hailed her performance and she has managed to keep her name out there all season, much like Christie has. The language of the film may be a drawback to some but she’s shown up everywhere so far and she poses a real threat for Christie. I would not count out an upset at all.

Ellen Page could become one of the youngest winners ever if voters decide that she deserves the award for pulling off the title role in Juno. She is the only other actress besides Cotillard that has managed to keep up with Christie throughout the entire process and Page represents the “fan favorite” of the bunch. She was so incredibly heartwarming in the film that it is definitely possible that some voters will vote with their hearts and pencil her in and that makes her a definite contender in this race and perhaps, the dark horse.

The real surprise of the category here was the inclusion of Laura Linney for her work in The Savages. She was almost completely ignored by every single voting body except the Academy. That could mean that they really liked her performance and wanted to right a wrong. The fact that her film is also up for Best Original Screenplay means that it doesn’t necessarily have limited support, and she looms as the darkest horse in this race.

Finally we come to Cate Blanchett, who was nominated for her second time playing this character. Her performance in Elizabeth: The Golden Age was terrific, but the film was far from that and it seems like she benefited from her popularity more than anything else. A win for her would be shocking but it would also prove the point that she is their current “it” girl when it comes to acting. Don’t bet the farm on it though.

Essentially, we have either a 2 or 3 way race here. Julie Christie is the undisputed frontrunner, but Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page are not out of it yet. A split of the votes could occur and that would favor one of the underdogs, Page most likely, but as it stands at the current moment, Julie Christie is poised to take home the gold. We shall know for sure quite soon, and I for one cannot wait for all to be revealed...

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