Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

"It's not about who we want to win,

It's about who will"

FINAL ANALYSIS: THE ACTORS

Tommy Lee Jones was a surprising (yet deserving) Best Actor nominee for his work in In the Valley of Elah

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By Kelly Doucette

Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

Why He Will Win: Of the five nominees, he is the most "overdue". This is his third nomination without a win yet. He was originally a frontrunner for the first installment of the PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN trilogy but that award ended up going to Golden Globe (in a Drama) winner Sean Penn. Now, he has his first Golden Globe in hand and may win for a collaboration with his long-time colleague Tim Burton, which would be a cap to their longevity.

Why He Won’t Win: Depp has failed to impress at most critics awards (except for the Broadcast Film Critics) as well as at BAFTA and SAG. This could hurt him.

George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Why He Will Win: Two words: GEORGE – CLOONEY. Despite winning the Golden Globe for SYRIANA, he pulled up a surprise upset for his first Academy Award for that same role, stealing it from SAG and critics’ awards champion Paul Giamatti. This season, MICHAEL CLAYTON has gone almost completely ignored by awards groups save for Tilda Swinton’s victories at the BAFTAs and three other critics awards and Tom Wilkinson’s [tied] victory at the Golden Satellite awards. Clooney has racked up Best Actor laurels at the National Board of Review, San Francisco Film Critics Circle and Washington D.C. Film Critics Association Awards. Also, CLAYTON is the only film to score more than one acting nomination (it earned three), and this may be in its favor, despite a SAG ensemble snub.

Why He Won’t Win: The film just has not taken off like it was supposed to.

Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Why He Will: He is largely considered an underappreciated actor, missing out on awards attention for his work in A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE and THE LORD OF THE RINGS trilogy. With his first nomination in front of him, anything is possible with a little praying. He may very well win a lot of the female vote for his stunning nude fight scene.

Why He Won’t Win: Mortensen stands no chance of upsetting award champ Day-Lewis, at least not for this role. Also, Cronenberg films usually are not truly appreciated by the American Academy, with the exception of 1986’s THE FLY winning for Best Makeup. I also feel that this was not exactly his best role to date; that honor would belong to 2003’s LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING.

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Why He Will Win: The awards glory hog of the season, Mr. Day-Lewis simply transformed himself into yet another fascinating character. Many actors can deliver dialogue but not many of those same actors can hold our attention during a 15-minute music-only scene in which he mines for silver and breaks a leg. Also, many feel he was robbed out of his second trophy a few years back for GANGS OF NEW YORK, for which they may feel they owe him… big time!

Why He Won’t Win: There is simply no chance he will lose. Although, in many other years, people get bored of having the same person win award after award for the same performance. This may hurt him but with a very loose chance.

Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Why He Will Win: His veteran status certainly prevailed and having been shoved out of the supporting race for his role in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, the voters just had to put him somewhere. Having even received a nomination for this role means there is a very likely possibility for his upset and for him to be the "veteran" winner of the year.

Why He Won’t Win: Having scored all his precursor nominations for his other performance, I feel that there is a very slim chance for him to be the veteran winner because he already has an Oscar for THE FUGITIVE. While Julie Christie may very well be the veteran winner of the year with an Oscar already at home, she at least scored some major precursor attention this awards season.

Who Will Win Best Actor?

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