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POST-SUMMER BUZZ: A LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FALL(EN) CONTENDERS

"The Savages" is among the most promising Fall releases

FEATURES

By Johnny Alba

If the period from April to July is basically the awards season’s equivalent of hell, then August and September are basically limbo. It’s the time of the year when studios traditionally dump most of the films that could or could not become serious Oscar contenders:

Hollywoodland, The Black Dahlia and All the King’s Men were all released in September of last year; Proof and An Unfinished Life a year before that (I think we all remember how all those fared with the critics and the crowds). To be fair, things got much better in October when The Departed and Babel were released (along with Flags of our Fathers and Running with Scissors).

Fall in general is definitely a hit or miss season and here is a quick overview of the films we think will break this season’s failure curse (and those that most likely won’t):

*November and December releases have been left out of this list

Most Likely to Succeed

1. Reservation Road
The novel’s key topics are very Oscar-friendly: redemption, forgiveness and sacrifice. If writer/director Terry George is able to bring into this adaptation the same level of emotion he gave to Hotel Rwanda; this film will probably become one of the season’s top contenders in all the Big 8 categories.

2. Margot at the Wedding
Nicole Kidman, Jack Black and Jennifer Jason Leigh are said to be “sincerely” funny and realistic on the anticipated dramedy by Noah Baumbach. Claimed to still the show from everyone, Jennifer Jason Leigh is just one of the dramedy’s many Oscar hopes: don’t count it out on the screenplay, director and possibly Best Picture categories.

3. The Savages
Though the story is completely different, Tamara Jenkins’ dramedy has been consistently compared to Baumbach’s. Talent-wise, I would place my bets on Laura Linney and Philip Seymour Hoffman over Kidman and her gang any day; and if we leaned something from last year’s Little Miss Sunshine is that AMPAS is all about dysfunctional families coming together.

4. The Golden Age
The trailer alone makes the film a strong contender in the artistic and technical categories but can this epic (and Blanchett herself) overcome the sequel bias? Reviews will need to be amazing.

5. Eastern Promises
David Cronenberg’s last project A History of Violence was one of the most acclaimed films of 2005 (and earned 2 Oscar nominations). Still, the very misunderstood director has no Oscar nominations for himself and while he is likely to continue as a critics' darling, it’s not so likely AMPAS will open up to him for this kind of project. He’s still loved by the French though!

Doomed by a Release Date?

6. In the Valley of Elah
Is AMPAS ready for more Paul Haggis? I’d say Yes! The two times Oscar winner is back to basics on this star-studded drama that will probably feature lots of over-dramatic moments and trivial debate about Iraq…

7. 3:10 to Yuma
If AMPAS feels apathy about sequels, then it detests remakes… Considering this assumption, how did this western get Oscar buzz to begin with? Well, thank that to Russell Crowe, Christian Bale and James Mangold; among others… But now that I think about it, weren’t the big names involved the reason behind the massive buzz for last year’s All the King’s Men too?

8. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
It’s opening in September after being pushed back from 2006… Is there really anything more to say?

9. The Brave One
Jodie Foster is the best actress (under 50!) out there and one of the best of all time, she can turn bad screenplays into entertaining films like Flight Plan and the Panic Room but we miss her in "quality" work. The Brave One is both revenge saga and action/thriller, neither of AMPAS taste lately, but with Foster, plus Terrence Howard playing non-thug, is there hope for this film to become something more than a modest box-office hit?

10. Rendition
Jake Gyllenhaal, Meryl Streep and Reese Witherspoon star in this upcoming thriller that could definitely go any way. The lack of real buzz and the exaggerated focus on the stars’ romance and subsequent breakup may ruin this film’s awards and box-office prospects (if any).

Potential Spoilers

11. Across the Universe
Julie Taymor directed Frida to many artistic and technical Oscar nods, can she do the same for this Beatles’ inspired musical about love and war during the 60’s… Judging the film by its trailer, I’d be positive but is conservative AMPAS ready for this type of work?

12. Into the Wild
Sean Penn is a great actor but can he direct? He has proven able to come up with decent films before; and we all know AMPAS loves actors working behind the camera. Still, it took him 4 Oscar nominations (plus many years of solid performances) to be recognized and it’s hard to tell how much time it will take AMPAS to consider him in this category (whenever he deserves it).

13. Things We Lost in the Fire
Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro are chasing another Oscar in this awards-friendly story but with nothing much to talk about it yet except for the talent involved, we’ll have to wait for some reviews before continue speculating…

Flop Written All Over It

14. El Cantante
Can you sing Vanity Project? That’s what top critics around the nation are claiming about this blatant attempt at awards attention starring real-life husband and wife Marc Anthony and Jennifer Lopez. Although latin music fans will probably enjoy it (and there are probably many of those in AMPAS, right?), bad reviews from Variety and The Hollywood Reporter are not a good omen.

15. Becoming Jane
Anne Hathaway has a promising, long career ahead of her but she should stick to films where she plays the American heroine. Recent word on her performance as the iconic author Jane Austen hasn’t been anything to write home about and the film has also been criticized for its weak portrayal of one of the most important women on Brit literature.

16. The Invasion
Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig star on The Invasion, a bland-looking hybrid of many alien films and a science fiction novel. Typically an August release, expect this film to make some money but definitely not as much as we can expect if you consider its star power.

17. Bordertown
We have already reviewed this awful, preachy attempt of a thriller, click here to read our early review.

November and December will obviously bring the year’s biggest hopefuls but let’s face it, at least one of the films on our top 5 will become a Best Picture nominee… The big question is which one?

What upcoming Fall releases will become real Oscar contenders? Discuss it here!
 

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