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PREDICTIONS 2007

AWARDS PROFILE: "EASTERN PROMISES"

"Eastern Promises" just won the People's Choice Award at Toronto, is that "Oscar" relevant?

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By Clayton Davis

When David Cronenberg came on to the scene in the late 1960s, no one knew how much of a cinematic icon he would become to generations of moviegoers ahead. Films as The Fly, Naked Lunch and The Dead Zone have undoubtedly placed him in the "cult legend" status and this season, he comes back to the crowds with the TIFF's award-winning Eastern Promises; a crime film about the corruption, betrayal, and loyalty of the Russian mafia.

While the film will surely hit many tones with the audiences and despite being both captivating and exciting; Eastern Promises is hardly Oscar bait and it’s questionable to consider it a real threat in the Best Picture race. David Cronenberg may be his own worst enemy when it comes to earning recognition from AMPAS as a Director: he is often labeled for his excessive gore and unusual but "to die for" movie plots (two characteristics that also haunted Martin Scorsese for over 25 years).

Still, could there be "Oscar" in Cronenberg's future? What about the other prospects of the film?

Viggo Mortensen, being considered snubbed for his performances in A History of Violence and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, gives his best performance to date. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to get noticed in a film where despite your solid acting, much of the talk about your work is focused on the sequence with your penis on full display (just ask Harvey Keitel in The Piano). Male nudity can turn voters off, especially the oldest ones. Naomi Watts gives a very compelling performance but she falls into the Maria Bello dilemma of category confusion. It’s been about ten weeks since I’ve seen the film and I still cannot decide what category should be appropriate for her.

“I guess when in doubt, go the supporting route.”

Supporting actress is a category that may be good for her. That category is currently a mess anyway with no clear frontrunners all year long and we’re already in September without concrete clues. It’s easy for a renowned actress to win there when there will be some people thinking they’re a lead: examples including Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Weisz, and Catherine Zeta-Jones. Watts is "due" for some recognition after being run over by the Charlize Theron in Monster steamroller back in 2003.

The best chances for the film however, will lie in the creative screenplay of Dirty Pretty Things’ Steven Knight (who has a good chance a la Josh Olsen in 2004); and a long overdue Oscar nomination for Armin Mueller-Stahl (who hasn’t been at the ceremony since his surprise inclusion in 1997 for Shine). Some people seem to feel Vincent Cassel (the other strong supporting role in the film) could be embraced but his performance is overshadowed by Stahl’s strong turn.

Likely, internet bloggers will be rallying for David Cronenberg through the rest of the year and while this film isn’t as impressive as A History of Violence; it is still well worthy of some awards consideration. We’ll have to wait and see…

For Your Consideration:

Best Picture
Best Director: David Cronenberg
Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen
Best Supporting Actor: Armin Mueller-Stahl*
Best Supporting Actress: Naomi Watts
Best Original Screenplay: Steven Knight*
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Original Score

*=most probable

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