Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

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It's about who will"

THE DREAMGIRLS/DEPARTED EFFECT: IS THE ACADEMY CHANGING?

2006 was a year of change for the Academy, Will it prevail?

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By Josh Kirschenbaum

There are many striking similarities between the Oscars® and the flu. They both come every year; they both change year to year but the basic rules for each still apply. Just as each strain of flu causes the same general symptoms, the same clichés apply to the Oscars® year after year: Indies and comedies are only awarded for screenplays, the famous and young have the edge over character actors and veterans (at least in the leading categories), the film with the biggest campaign usually wins...

There have been exceptions to this rule or course, but they are few and far between. Yet last year may have been the start of something big.

When the academy decided to forsake the ubiquitously campaigned Dreamgirls for the atypical and less campaigned contender The Departed, they sent the message that they were tired of being told who to vote for. From now on, they would decide for themselves. Right?

Studios took this message to heart and the result is a buzz-less year. There aren’t any major campaigns, no frontrunners, no early locks. No studio will risk having their film be the favorite, lest it be over-hyped and ultimately flop. I am far from the first to point this out but I don’t think anyone quite realizes what this means for the Oscars®.

The studios have lost their stranglehold on the race; they have let it go on their own accord. No longer will nominees (and winner) be decided by flashy campaigns. The days when an unsatisfying film like Gangs of New York can be nominated for Best Picture because it feels important are over.

You can already see the effect: films that would normally be counted out for being too violent (Eastern Promises, 3:10 to Yuma), too offbeat (Lars and the Real Girl, I’m Not There), or too childish (Enchanted) have shown up on numerous predictions lists. There are no rules anymore. Studios can’t crush smaller films with huge campaigns for fear of extreme voter backlash.

Early releases stand to benefit the most from the lack of major studio campaigns. There is significantly less risk of being forgotten by voting time because this year, quality is the name of the game. Films like Away from Her, Waitress, La Vie En Rose, Once, and even Knocked Up are getting awards buzz.

This is a new paradigm for the Academy. They’ve never had to choose films based solely on quality before. I anticipate that the Oscar® choices will mirror the critics’ awards more than the Golden Globes®.

Inevitably, the Academy will go back to its old ways. Studios will start their mega-campaigns again and smaller, more deserving films will be forgotten. Enjoy this year of independent thinking while you can, I don’t think it will come again for a long time...

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