Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

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BEST DIRECTING: ACTORS CAN SHINE IN FRONT & BEHIND THE CAMERA

The very divisive Sean Penn is among this year's top contenders in the Best Directing category

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By Tom Houseman

May I direct your attention to a group of men? You’ve seen their faces so many times but rarely have you seen their work in this regard. They are actors by trade but they have grown tired of standing in front of the camera and somehow wandered behind it, like lost animals. But they enjoyed what they saw and start playing around, pushing a few buttons. Now they’re expecting Oscars.

I’ll admit I have little respect for actors-turned-directors, and there has been a swarm of them this year. For some reason, the Academy does not share my sentiments concerning this particular set of filmmakers, and tend to hurl awards at them faster than they can catch them. Some are deserving, as few can deny that Clint Eastwood did not do a superb job, but other times watching an actor win a directing Oscar over a far more deserving nominee is sickening. I am eternally grateful that I didn’t see Kevin Costner win an Oscar for Dances with Wolves as Martin Scorsese sat on the sidelines, his Goodfellas unrewarded.

The leader of the pack this year is Sean Penn. Not letting my personal opinion of Penn’s directorial skills get in the way, Penn has a very good shot at getting a nomination for his latest film, Into the Wild. The film is critically beloved and has a fascinating narrative, based on a best-selling book about a true story. The centerpiece of Penn’s film is Emile Hirsch, who has gotten a lot of positive attention for the film, and is quite possibly on his way to his own nomination. Penn’s previous directing efforts, The Pledge, The Crossing Guard, and The Indian Runner have combined for a whopping zero nominations, but Penn is getting a lot of love. If the film is embraced by the NBR and the Golden Globes, then a Best Picture nomination is likely, along with Director and Screenplay nominations for Penn, a nomination for Hirsch, and other nominations in categories like Cinematography and Song.

The other two actors hoping to get nominated for Best Director are one of the most respected, and one of the least respected, in Hollywood. Robert Redford has been nominated for Best Director twice (more than he has been nominated as an actor), winning for Ordinary People and then being nominated as both director and producer of Quiz Show. The problem is that Redford’s latest effort, Lions for Lambs, is an overtly political film dealing with the war in Iraq. It’s possible that with the combination of his film, Paul Haggis’ In the Valley of Elah and Gavin Hood’s Rendition; The Academy might be sick of these political movies. If none of these movies really stand out, then they will all miss out on Best Picture, although Redford’s has the best shot. If the film builds a lot of buzz, it’s impressive cast, including Meryl Streep and Tom Cruise, could push it into Best Picture territory.

Ben Affleck has been the butt of more jokes in the last decade than, well, Jennifer Lopez’s butt. But suddenly the daredevil has turned respectable, adapting and directing Dennis Lehane’s novel Gone Baby Gone, which stars Ben brother Casey. The film looks very powerful and dramatic, the sort of thing that The Academy would eat up. Lehane’s only other work that has been adapted to the screen received a Best Picture nomination, Mystic River, directed by actor Clint Eastwood. Fate? Maybe not. Gone Baby Gone will need a lot of love to snag a Director nomination, and it is likely that even if it does get nominated, that Affleck will not.

Denzel Washington’s directorial debut, Antwone Fisher, received some buzz but no nominations. His newest film hasn’t even received buzz, but The Great Debaters, based on a true story, is set for release this Christmas, and will hope to get some awards attention. Washington is highly respected in Hollywood, and The Great Debaters could come out of nowhere to snag a Picture nomination and a Director nod for Denzel. Stranger things have happened… I suppose.

And what about the women? Three actresses have had films released in theaters this year, a number that is likely higher than the percentage chance any of them has at a nomination. Sarah Polley’s, whose debut Away from Her received absolute raves, has the only legitimate shot at a nomination, but that is still a heavy stretch. A Best Actress nomination for the film’s star, Julie Christie, looks very likely, and Polley could sneak in with a Screenplay nomination. The same fate is in store for Adrienne Shelley, whose film Waitress was released shortly after her sudden, shocking death. Shelley could receive a posthumous Screenplay nomination, and Keri Russell has a chance for a Best Actress nomination, but Best Director is out of the question for Shelley. Even less likely to be nominated is Julie Delpy, who was nominated for co-writing the Richard Linklater film Before Sunset. Delpy wrote, directed, produced, scored, and starred in 2 Days in Paris, a film that is already forgotten, and will earn her no accolades from the Academy.

So while the real directors (not to be biased) will take most of the spots this year, an actor could sneak into the short list, most likely Penn for Into the Wild or, conceivably, Affleck for Gone Baby Gone. Most likely, however, it is the long overdue directors that will get their shot at the golden guy, with Ridley Scott, Paul Thomas Anderson, the Coen brothers, Tim Burton, David Cronenberg, and Marc Forster, along with previous winners Mike Nichols, Paul Haggis, and Ang Lee. They will be the ones to show what it takes to be a great director, or at least an Oscar nominated one.

Early Predictions- Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will be Blood
Tim Burton- Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Joel and Ethan Coen- No Country for Old Men
Ridley Scott- American Gangster
Joe Wright- Atonement

On the Bubble:

David Cronenberg- Eastern Promises
Marc Forster- The Kite Runner
Sean Penn- Into the Wild

What do you think? Is Sean Penn stealing Ridley Scott's thunder this year? Share your predictions here!

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