Forecasting the Oscars ® since 2003

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It's about who will"

BEST PICTURE: A RACE ANY FILM CAN STILL WIN?

The $100 million dollar hit Juno could get enough "young" votes to win Best Picture, do you agree?

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By Joey Magidson

No Country for Old Men wins Best Picture, that’s all folks, end of story... At first glance, that seems to be the easiest way to look at the Best Picture race this year. This film has almost all the buzz, all the accolades, and most importantly, all the precursors. But, and this is a big one, it is by no means a sure thing.

There are conceivable scenarios in which all 5 contenders could walk away with the top prize (some are more likely to occur than others, but I shall present them to you nonetheless).

Atonement

Why it will win:

This is the film that the international voters will get behind. It also has the additional advantage of not popping up everywhere this season (a factor that almost killed its early buzz and now makes it more of a “fresh” face than we would have previously thought it to be). Atonement is also the type of film that was essentially built to win Oscars. The epic tale of forbidden love could hope voters have fond memories of films like The English Patient and vote for director Joe Wright’s drama.

Why it won’t win:

While the reviews and reception for Atonement stateside were good, they weren’t amazing. This was the type of film that needed to be a critical favorite to keep its buzz going. Instead, the movie didn’t bowl people over. The Academy will like the film (in fact, they must have liked in order to have nominated it here) but it just doesn’t have the love that was necessary for it to become the key player that some people predicted.

Juno

Why it will win:

Quite frankly, this is the only film nominated that will put a smile on your face. Nobody dies, none of the characters make your skin crawl or your blood boil and it just makes you feel good on the inside. Nobody should discount the fact that this is the only film in this category that is not “dark”. Juno will have the young vote on its side, along with the votes of people who disliked all the violence or intensity that dominated the other nominees this year. Let’s also not forget that fact that this flick is the “blockbuster” of the group. A 100 million (and counting) box office equals to votes. Not only could Juno be this year’s Little Miss Sunshine, but anchored by terrific direction by Jason Reitman and a fantastic script by newbie Diablo Cody, it may even have a fate sunnier than that film's.

Why it won’t win:

There are voters who probably don’t get or like the quirky dialogue that runs wild throughout Juno. The film also targets a much younger crowd than any other film here (which will certainly earn it votes but most likely, it will limit its chances with the old Hollwyood voters). Add on the fact that the movie may just be too lightweight for the Academy as the little movie about a pregnant teen may not be able to stand up to the weight of the Anton Chigurhs and Daniel Plainviews of the world.

Michael Clayton

Why it will win:

This is an old school type of film. The older voters will flock to this movie and support it in a big way. We’ve been underestimating this flick all season (or at least I have) and every time it shows up it seems like a surprise. It’s getting its love from somewhere, and the love fest may well continue on Oscar night. Put that together with the good reviews, the assured writing and direction of Tony Gilroy; the clout of George Clooney and this is a heavyweight contender indeed.

Why it won’t win:

As silly as it sounds, it may be too low-key for some voters. This is a talky affair, and while that may work for some; it may not have enough power for others. In a year without gut punches of films like No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood, this could be a potential frontrunner; but this film is going to be in all likelihood the hardest for anyone to consider their first choice for Best Picture of the Year.

No Country for Old Men

Why it will win:

It’s spent the entire season doing nothing but winning. Why stop now? No Country has been both a critical and audience favorite, rivaled only in love by Juno and the voters will no doubt be as taken by the film as everyone else has been. The Academy has enjoyed the work of the Coen Brothers before and there is no reason to assume that they won’t support what some consider to be their masterpiece. As they say in the film, “you can’t stop what’s coming”, and No Country for Old Men seems to be coming straight along to a win for Best Picture.

Why it won’t win:

There exists the chance that voters may be tired of hearing about this film 24/7 and stage a revolt of sorts against it. If people have a close second choice, they may opt to support an underdog instead of the #1 contender. There’s also the issue of the ending. It might be so off-putting to some that it could cost the film votes. If both those events occur during voting, then on Oscar night we may be looking at a very large upset.

There Will Be Blood

Why it will win:

The sheer power of Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance in There Will Be Blood might compel voters to select this film. It also is the only film other than No Country to have any real foothold in the Best Picture race through the precursors. Critics put this film as their number 1 film of the year almost as much as No Country, and as the newest kid on the Oscar block, it may seem like the least stale option when voting time occurs. If any sort of backlash to No Country happens, Paul Thomas Anderson’s film about oil and greed may be the one that siphons votes in its favor. In other words, if votes were milkshakes, this film could potentially on Oscar night tell No Country for Old Men “I drank your milkshake!”

Why it won’t win:

It may be too obtuse for some voters, and its arrival as the last contender in the race potentially limited repeat viewings of the film for some. Also, as good as Daniel Day-Lewis is in the film, his character is incredibly unlikeable and that may not help the film. There Will Be Blood is the darkest film of the year and compared to this, No Country for Old Men could actually seem less depressing by comparison. That would really cripple this film’s chances.

Overall, all 5 contenders could make the case that they have legitimate shots at winning but only 2 or 3 will really be on my radar as potential winners. No Country for Old Men takes the frontrunner spot, with There Will Be Blood as the runner up trying to overtake it and with Juno lying in the weed as a dark horse and potential huge upset. The only way to find out will be to stay tuned to this race, and I certainly know I will… Will you?

What film will win Best Picture?

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