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REALITY CHECK?... OUR (AUGUST) BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS EXAMINED!

Writer vs. Editor? Tom Houseman examines our current Best Picture lineup, who's right (or who is less wrong)?

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By Tom Houseman

I love Johnny Alba. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find a bigger Johnny Alba fan than this guy right here. He busts his butt running one of the most insightful and comprehensive Oscar websites in the world, writes great articles and reviews, and gave me my first legitimate writing job. I would find it difficult to say a single bad word about the man. But when he came to me on bended knee (translation: sent me an email) and said “Tom, teach me your ways. Please, enlighten me. I need you to guide me towards the path of righteousness,” what was I gonna do? Say no? So I looked over Johnny's very early Best Picture predictions, and set out to do some work revising them and, essentially, making them better. Johnny has the right idea, but he needs a shove in the direction. And since I am teaching him the true path, I might as well inform the ever-dedicated Oscar Igloo readers as well.

Below is a list of Johnny Alba's top nineteen predictions for Best Picture nominees for the 2007 Oscars. You will find my response to his choices, and where they should actually be placed on the list. I also included a few choices that he left off his list, that foolish, foolish man:

Charlie Wilson's War: Sure, it's gotten glowing script reviews, but I can't help but be suspicious. Nichols' last film that had huge Oscar buzz, Closer, pretty much struck out, getting only supporting nominations for Owen and Portman. But Nichols, who won an Oscar for The Graduate, is not the reason why I disagree with Johnny putting Charlie Wilson as the frontrunner. It's the cast. Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts have combined for zero nominations since Roberts won for Erin Brockovich. They both feel like they had their spotlight in the 90s, and to get the Academy's attention again, they will need to be great. Frankly, I can't picture two actors more ill suited to Aaron Sorkin's style of dialogue. I might be surprised, but for now, I can't have Charlie Wilson's War as my front runner. Where It Should Be: 4

American Gangster: This is another one where I'm not sure what Johnny is thinking putting it so high. Ridley Scott is hit and miss with the Academy, and his only Best Picture nominee was Gladiator, which was a Box Office smash and received raves. Similarly, Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington have been firing Oscar blanks lately. Johnny himself pointed out that this will be facing constant comparisons to The Departed. This will need to be a massive hit to make the Best Picture shortlist, and I certainly wouldn't put it there now. Where It Should Be: 8

Reservation Road: Now how is this behind Charlie and Gangster? This is the one I'm putting my money on right now. George's Hotel Rwanda just missed out on Best Picture, and this character study will be much easier for the Academy to get behind. It stars Best Actor frontrunner Joaquin Phoenix, Oscar winners Jennifer Connolly and Mira Sorvino, and serious up-and-comer Mark Ruffalo. This will be this year's In the Bedroom or Terms of Endearment, and is the surest bet for a nomination I can find. Where It Should Be: 1

The Kite Runner: What exactly gives Johnny the impression that this is going to be nominated for Best Picture? Is it director Marc Forster, who has only gotten one film nominated for Best Picture, and didn't get a Director nomination for it? Is it writer David Benioff, who wrote Stay and Troy, two terrible screenplays that got no attention from anyone? Is it the cast, a group of names that I can't even pronounce, much less recognize? I'm not sure what the thought process is, beyond the prestige of the book, which doesn't count for much unless the movie gets absolute raves. Where It Should Be: 10

There Will Be Blood: I get the impression that the Academy is scared of Paul Thomas Anderson. Whenever he's around, they get goose bumps and the hair on the back of their necks stands up. There Will Be Blood looks phenomenal, and Daniel Day-Lewis and Paul Dano, two outstanding actors. This seems like it will be Anderson's most approachable film, but he is still too much of a wildcard for me to put him on my shortlist, although I can't criticize Johnny for putting it at #5, as it won't take much to push it onto my top 5. Where It Should Be: 7

Sweeney Todd: People have been saying that the Academy got bored of musicals after Chicago, and now are avoiding them. The truth is, every musical that has come out since Chicago has sucked. And yes, that includes Dreamgirls. The difference will be that I am sure Sweeney Todd will be phenomenal. It is the perfect project for Tim Burton, and features Academy favorite Johnny Depp as well as respected actors Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, and, of course, Sacha Baron Cohen. This is certain to be a big hit, and will almost definitely be nominated for the big prize, although a win is unlikely. Where It Should Be: 2

The Golden Age: What possible reason could anyone have for not putting The Golden Age on their shortlist? And I'm not buying that “sequel” load. This looks better than Elizabeth; juicier supporting parts, a more compelling plot, and a more epic scale to it. Cate Blanchett has more respect than any other actress right now, and with Geoffrey Rush, Samantha Morton, and Clive Owen in the cast, the Academy will devour them. This could be the Academy's chance to apologize to Cate Blanchett with an Oscar, and shower The Golden Age with awards as compensation. Where It Should Be: 3

Atonement: I'm putting this one on my shortlist after having seen the second trailer, and really, my expectations could not be higher. Joe Wright's directing and Keira Knightley's performance look to exceed what they did together in Pride & Prejudice, and the edition of rising star James McAvoy is a huge plus. This is the exact kind of film the Academy loves and, if it is as good as it looks, will be extremely well received. This is a group of people the Academy likes, making a movie the Academy is sure to love. What's keeping it out of the top five? Where It Should Be: 5

Lions for Lambs: I can understand why this film tricked Johnny into putting it in his top 10, but I'm not buying it. Robert Redford's last two films have barely been blips on the radar, and he hasn't made a film that's gotten more than a Best Song nomination in thirteen years. Tom Cruise is not about to win any popularity contest, and writer Mathew Michael Carnahan is an uknown, so Meryl Streep is the only thing going for it. Also, it will likely get overshadowed by Charlie Wilson's War, with which it shares similar themes. Lions for Lambs will be facing an uphill battle all year. Where It Should Be: 12

Hairspray: I haven't had any major complaints with Johnny's list so far, but here things get absurd. Sure it got good reviews and has been doing well at the Box Office, but how on Earth is Hairspray one of the ten most likely films to be nominated? It has a cast featuring more punch lines than Oscar contenders (did you hear the one about the Scientologist in a dress?) including actors who made their names on Nickelodeon, The Disney Channel, and in a Cold Stone. The director's biggest hits are Cheaper by the Dozen 2 and Bringing Down the House, and the writer's last two movies are Just Like Heaven and Freaky Friday. The Tony's embrace comedy, but the Oscars do not, and Hairspray will be lucky to get any attention from the latter. Johnny might feel like this could pull a Little Miss Sunshine, but that's just not going to happen. Where It Should Be: Not the Top 20

Margot at the Wedding: There are few certainties in the world: The Cubs will always choke in the playoffs, Road Runner will always get away from Coyote, and Noah Baumbach will always be too weird for the Academy. Margot looks like it will be Baumbach's second Original Screenplay nomination, and could score nominations for Nicole Kidman or Jennifer Jason Leigh, but much like Squid and Whale, it will just be too offbeat for the Academy to handle. No matter what the reviews say, Best Picture seems like a pipe dream for Baumbach and Margot. Where It Should Be: Not the Top 20

No Country for Old Men: I want to put this one higher on my list, and I think Johnny should have, but there are too many other, more Oscar-friendly contenders to have it be any higher on the top ten. Of course, when those contenders start to fall, and at least some of them will, then No Country's stock will rise. It got raves at Cannes, and looks to be the Coen Brothers' best since Fargo, but the Coens haven't gotten much love from the Academy since Fargo, so there are no certainties. If the precursor awards, especially, the Globes, embrace No Country, watch for the Academy to follow suit. Where It Should Be: 9

Michael Clayton: This film seemed like a serious contender before the trailer came out, but now not so much. Writer/Director Tony Gilroy has never so much as smelled an Oscar, having spent his career writing Hollywood action films. A film about the dirty politics behind big business doesn't seem like Academy fodder, and there is little that makes this film seem like it will be the kind the Academy could embrace. If it's great it could be a big surprise, especially considering the cast includes George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson, and Tilda Swinton. But that doesn't seem likely. Where It Should Be: 17

In the Valley of Elah: Johnny somehow stuck this one at the bottom barrel, when it should be close to the top. People have underestimated Paul Haggis before, and most of those people still feel like fools for doing so. I'd hate for Johnny Alba to ever feel like a fool, so I'm warning him now: watch out of In the Valley of Elah. Its buzz is starting to build, and it's about the Iraq war, which will give Haggis plenty of opportunity for social criticism. If there's one thing the Academy loves, it's Haggis' social criticism. Starring Oscar Winners Tommy Lee Jones, Charlize Theron, and Susan Sarandon, this film is very likely to continue Haggis' Oscar domination. Where It Should Be: 6

Rendition: Part 1 of 2 of “Where Did Johnny Come up with This One?” features Gavin Hood's American debut. Yet another political thriller, this one stars Reese Witherspoon and Jake Gyllenhaal, and has no buzz whatsoever. I'd never heard of it until I saw it on Johnny's list, and I doubt very much I'll hear about it during Oscar season. Political thrillers rarely do well at the Oscars, and this one doesn't look like it will stand out at all. Where It Should Be: Not the Top 20

The Savages: The conclusion to the critically acclaimed series “Where Did Johnny Come up with This One?” focuses on this family dark-comedy starring Philip Seymour Hoffman and Laura Linney. Written and Directed by Tamara Jenkins, whom you might remember from… well, absolutely nothing, this film might get attention for its screenplay, or Philip Bosco's performance as the dying family patriarch, but it's a dark horse for any categories, and an extreme long shot for Best Picture. Where It Should Be: Not the Top 20

The Other Boleyn Girl: As I said before, a prestigious novel does not make an automatic Oscar nominee, but when it is adapted by Peter Morgan, writer of The Queen, and stars Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson, that's a good start. Early talk about the project is average, but a historical drama about British royalty is always tempting to the Academy. It will likely get overlooked in favor of The Golden Age, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. Where It Should Be: 15

3:10 to Yuma: Are Westerns coming back? It's always hard to tell, but if they are, then watch out for 3:10 to Yuma. Directed by James Mangold (Walk the Line) and starring Russell Crowe and Christian Bale, this historical action drama could fit the Academy's tastes very well, and good reviews, solid box-office, and precursor love could yield surprising results. Call it a funny feeling, if you will. Where It Should Be: 11

Eastern Promises: David Cronenberg's A History of Violence was a dark, violent, intense action drama based on a graphic novel, and almost snuck onto the Best Picture shortlist. This thriller looks like it could be even better, and stars Academy favorite Naomi Watts. If A History of Violence struck a chord, Eastern Promises could get a lot of attention, as its story is one far more likely to get attention from the Academy. Where It Should Be: 14
Not on the List:

Lust, Caution: Does Johnny not know who Ang Lee is? You might remember him as the director of Best Picture nominees Sense and Sensibility, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, and Brokeback Mountain. Why else is he not on this list unless Johnny just couldn't place the name? This WWII thriller set in Shanghai stars Tony Leung and Tang Wei, and while there is little buzz around it right now, watch out for it to get a lot of attention soon. Sure it's in a foreign language, but that is becoming less of a problem for the Academy, and if this film packs the emotional punch of the trailer, it could dominate awards season. For now we'll have to wait and see. Where It Should Be: 13

Love in the Time of Cholera: Another adaptation of an extremely prestigious novel, this film deserves far more attention than it's been getting. Adapted by Ronald Harwood, Oscar winner for The Pianist, it is directed by Mike Newell (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire) and stars Javier Bardem, John Leguizamo, Liev Schreiber, and Catalina Sandino Moreno. It looks like it will be a gorgeous film, and if it hits with the Academy, it could be a big surprise at the Oscars. Great reviews will be the major tip-off to the fate of this film. Where It Should Be: 16

Rescue Dawn: Sure it's not typical Oscar fodder, Herzog has never had much luck with the Academy, and its early release date will give it an uphill battle, but with the reviews it's been getting, it should at least be considered for Best Picture. Christian Bale has been getting a lot of respect over the last few years, and he has been getting raves for his performance here. It's a war drama, which can always do well at the Oscars, and it might end up surprising a few people. Where It Should Be: 18

The Brave One: It is a very dark, intense drama, but The Departed fits that description too, and look what it did. Neil Jordan is a very well-respected director, having previously been nominated for The Crying Game, and two-time Oscar winner Jodie Foster is always a name to watch, as is Oscar nominee and rising star Terrence Howard. If this film gets raves, it could overcome its gritty subject matter to score some Oscar nominations, including maybe even Best Picture. Where It Should Be: 19

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead: Sidney Lumet has more nominations than any other living director without an Oscar on his shelf, and he is looking to rebound with his first nomination since 1983's The Verdict. A tough drama about a bank robbery that goes wrong, Before the Devil stars Oscar winners Philip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei, and nominees Ethan Hawke and Albert Finney. It has very little buzz right now, but with the star power behind it, great reviews and precursor love could mean big things for this film. Where It Should Be: 20

Tom has spoken (boy, he has...) but your opinion is the one that really matters to us, what films should be higher (and lower) in our Best Picture lineup? Let us know here!

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